Sunday, May 30, 2010

Daily Briefing 100531

1.  Review.

I said More downside is expected for the EURUSD in the long run; the 1.2150 level hold and I would expect here a correction to 1.32... I would expect risk off remaining to this low for the next week, but not deteriorate. I see the risk asset rally at attractive levels, but too risky to add positions to risk asset exposure. Basically I have to decide if to stay with the long and close the shorts with a loss or stay with the short and close the long with a huge loss, hoping to have something back with the shortsEURUSD did not corrected that much, juts 1.24 and is trading now at 1.22. Risk did not deteriorate and I waited to add new risky positions, but it was time to close some hedge short. Despite risk off not deterioration gold stayed flat, while oil rallied.
Trades
Close a USDJPY and AUDJPY short hedge position. Still holding EURNOK shorts, despite the overshooting. Traded a profitable EURUSD short.

2.  Analysis.

"Fundamental analysis"
Global markets stabilized last week, showing that the previous sell off was extreme. Some data *MSCI index and CRB index rebounded from the recent lows). Fundamentals data were lower than expected, especially regarding US GDP. Dollar, JPY and CAD were rising anyway on bad figure (contrary to the expected, sign as USD is acting as safe haven currency). Unemployment are always stable at 460k. Spain downgrading to AA+ after market close added pressure to EURUSD

"Technical analysis"
EURUSD gained the 1.24 level, but back to 1.22 and it looks like trading in the Q1-Q2 levels range. It would be a short on rallies. Key support is still the 1.2150 low. EUR COT short are again at the historical lows (-106k), USD long are the decreasing (+21k), showing a big divergence; JPY short are lowering (-10k). USDJPY after hitting 88 level, retested the 98 level back to 93, Is trading back in the 89 area. It is dangerous to a buy on these dips. US futures were sold off, hitting the 06 low. AUD long decreased (+19k), unwinding the risk on positions. GOLD/Oil ratio is still high from a 13 in the last months to 16 and VIX is back at 32, pointing for a risk off sentiment. Gold is to be monitored, because is flat since a week

"Market dynamics".
More downside is expected for the EURUSD in the long run if the 1.2150 level does not or the 1.2090 is reached. Key is the initial market reaction after S&P Spain downgrade. Three month outlook is still 1.18 level, suggesting short on rallies. A break of the 1.2680 resistance will suggest a reach of the 1.32 level. There some potential for risk to grow in the next week, suggesting a buy of JPY crosses on dips and short closing. I see the risk asset rally at attractive levels, maybe time to add diligent positions to risk asset exposure with quick profit taking. I decided if to stay with the higher long and close the shorts with a small loss too. Fundamental data to be monitored to assess the risk sentiment are US ISM report on Tuesday and Thursday and the Employment report on Friday.

Median grid
EURUSD GRID 1.2300 - 1.30, short bias
USDJPY GRID 88.00-92.00, neutral bias
AUDJPY GRID 78.00-86.00, neutral bias

Basically still a risk-off bias, but pausing risk

Prices
US down at 1084, (Q1-, same as last week)
GOLD up at 1214 (Q2)
Crude 74
EURUSD 1.22 (Q1)
USDJPY 91 (Q1)

3.  Plan
I will try to work out of the money positions for JPY longs;.

EURUSD
I will enter a long B&B on the next yob level (1.2350); I will hedge on a couple of level down (-100 pips). I can open a new toe in long same level. I will take profit at 50-100 pips
Comment:< >

USDJPY
Close the shorts on a dip (90) and buy a B&B in the grid
I will enter a long B&B on the next yob level (91) as pullback 1:1 from 90, I will hedge on a couple of level down (-100 pips). I can open a new toe in long same level. I will take profit at 50-100 pips
Comment:< Risk was positive and I closed a short in the money>

AUDJPY
Close the shorts on a dip (75) and buy a B&B in the grid
I will enter a long B&B on the next yob level (77) as pullback 1:1 from 75, I will hedge on a couple of level down (-100 pips). I can open a new toe in long same level. I will take profit at 50-100 pips
Comment:< Risk was positive and but I did not closed shorts, deep out of the money>

EURNOK
Hold short positions; I will enter a short B&B on the next yob level in the grid (7.933), I will hedge on a couple of level down (-100 pips). I can open a new toe in long same level. I will take profit at 50-100 pips
Comment:< >

4.  Trades
4.1 open trades, their type & their value:

2 Open 13-apr-10 USDJPY L 93.2400 Q3 1:1 toe-in 91.06 -218.0000 -203.974
6 Open 05-mag-10 USDJPY L 94.5900 Q2 1:1 toe-in 91.06 -353.0000 -333.868 Buy a dip
10 Open 06-mag-10 USDJPY L 93.8600 Q3 1:1 Panic 91.06 -280.0000 -262.5542 Buy a dip
14 Open 07-mag-10 USDJPY S 91.0700 Q1- 1:1 Hedge 91.06 1.0000 0.7000
16 Open 14-mag-10 USDJPY L 92.3000 Q1 1:1 B&B 91.06 -124.0000 -114.691
17 Open 14-mag-10 USDJPY S 89.1300 Q1- 1:1 Hedge 91.06 -193.0000 -172.1738
6 Open 04-mag-10 AUDJPY L 86.0500 Q4 1:1 toe-in 77.81 -892.0000 -767.1075 Normal long bias
7 Open 06-mag-10 AUDJPY L 85.1300 Q4 1:1 toe-in 77.81 -800.0000 -681.9699 Buying a dip
15 Open 20-mag-10 AUDJPY S 72.8700 Q1- 1:1 Hedge 77.81 -462.0000 -310.9956 Open 6
16 Open 20-mag-10 AUDJPY S 72.8800 Q1- 1:1 Hedge 77.810 -462.0000 -310.2856 Open 7


4.2 Leverage

Aggregate position size expressed as a gearing ratio (Ex = 4:1)

Total positions per currency:
USDJPY +4,-2
EURUSD 0
AUDJPY +2,-2
Position
USDJPY -203, -333,-262, -114, (1 ,-172)
EURUSD 0

AUDJPY -892, -800 (-462, -462)

4.3  Effect of planned trades

Account summary:
ActivTrades live account
Starting date: 1/4/2010
Starting capital: 1366
Line in the sand level:  750

1.  Account balance (Settled trades) and growth as a percentage.  (1337=-3%)
2.  Account equity (Including open positions) .  (1180= -14%)
3.  Account equity if planned trades go wrong
4.  Pip distance to line in the sand level.  4305, with gear (2) 2150

Sunday, May 23, 2010

Daily Briefing 100524

1.  Review.

I said More downside is expected for the EURUSD (1.22 level); I would expect here a correction to 1.32 (adding a long). In the long run EURUSD is expected to go back to 1.18 levels, reselling then at 1.32-4 levels. I would expect risk off remaining low for the next week, but not deteriorate. I will see the risk asset rally at attractive levels, adding positions to risk asset exposure.” It was instead a mess week and risk off deteriorate heavily. Risk assets were heavily sold off and USD and JPY gained as non safe heaven currencies. Gold was sold off too.
Trades
My plan was to close risk assets longs on rally but I decided to change bias end of the week, cashing the short I placed almost mid-grid. This change of plan was a complete disaster. Now I hedged my high grid level JPY short with very low level JPY long. EIUNOK lose 4 month gains in a couple of days.

2.  Analysis.

"Fundamental analysis"
Last week data were all in red. Sentiment was bad and numbers too. Next week data will be very important, especially US durable goods, consumer confidence both US and EZ. EZ economic is underperforming, interest rate differentials and repricing will weight on the EUR in mid-term view. I said “Oil would be a better risk sentiment indicator, and it is pointing low” and I should have listened. Commodities were sold off too and some concern about China growth is there. But it looks like that AUD, NOK and CAD looks sounds even with those sell off. Obliviously if it is a temporary correction or not is still a bet

"Technical analysis"
EURUSD broke 36 month low at 1.2150, and it looks like ahead to lower levels in the mid-term. It would be a short on rallies. EUR COT short are again at the historical lows (-107k), USD long are the same (+23k), JPY short are still there (-34k). USDJPY after hitting 88 level, back to 93, Is trading back in the 89 area. It is dangerous to a buy on these dips. US futures were sold off, hitting the 06 low. AUD long decreased (+38k). GOLD/Oil ratio is going higher from a 13 in the last months to 16.7 and VIX is jumped at 43, pointing for a risk off sentiment.

"Market dynamics".
More downside is expected for the EURUSD in the long run; the 1.2150 level hold and I would expect here a correction to 1.32 (adding a long in a south dip). In the long run EURUSD is expected to go back to 1.18 levels, reselling then at 1.32-4 levels. I would expect risk off remaining to this low for the next week, but not deteriorate. I see the risk asset rally at attractive levels, but too risky to add positions to risk asset exposure.
Basically I have to decide if to stay with the long and close the shorts with a loss or stay with the short and close the long with a huge loss, hoping to have something back with the shorts.

Median grid
EURUSD GRID 1.2300 - 1.30, short bias
USDJPY GRID 88.00-92.00, neutral bias
AUDJPY GRID 78.00-86.00, neutral bias

Basically still a risk-off bias, but pausing risk

Prices
US down at 1084, (Q1-)
GOLD up at 1176 (Q1)
Crude 70
EURUSD 1.2543 (Q3)
USDJPY 89.43 (Q1-)

3.  Plan
I already added new trades; I will try to work out of the money positions for JPY longs;.

EURUSD
Stay with this short
Comment:< >

USDJPY
Hold and see
Comment:< >

AUDJPY
Hold and see
Comment:< >

EURNOK
Hold and see
Comment:< I did anything of the “Take profit, at 7.74 level and add more shorts at pullback “. Shit…>

4.  Trades
4.1 open trades, their type & their value:

2 Open 13-apr-10 USDJPY L 93.2400 Q3 1:1 toe-in 89.3900 -385.0000 -358.974
6 Open 05-mag-10 USDJPY L 94.5900 Q2 1:1 toe-in 89.3900 -520.0000 -491.868 Buy a dip
10 Open 06-mag-10 USDJPY L 93.8600 Q3 1:1 Panic 89.3900 -447.0000 -419.5542 Buy a dip
13 Open 07-mag-10 USDJPY S 91.3600 Q1- 1:1 Hedge 89.3900 197.0000 179.9792
14 Open 07-mag-10 USDJPY S 91.0700 Q1- 1:1 Hedge 89.3900 168.0000 152.9976
16 Open 14-mag-10 USDJPY L 92.3000 Q1 1:1 B&B 92.4700 17.0000 15.691
17 Open 14-mag-10 USDJPY S 89.1300 Q1- 1:1 Hedge 89.3900 -26.0000 -23.1738
6 Open 04-mag-10 AUDJPY L 86.0500 Q4 1:1 toe-in 81.9000 -415.0000 -357.1075 Normal long bias
7 Open 06-mag-10 AUDJPY L 85.1300 Q4 1:1 toe-in 81.9000 -323.0000 -274.9699 Buying a dip
15 Open 20-mag-10 AUDJPY S 72.8700 Q1- 1:1 Hedge 74.7500 -188.0000 -136.9956 Open 6
16 Open 20-mag-10 AUDJPY S 72.8800 Q1- 1:1 Hedge 74.7500 -187.0000 -136.2856 Open 7


4.2 Leverage

Aggregate position size expressed as a gearing ratio (Ex = 4:1)

Total positions per currency:
USDJPY +4,-3
EURUSD 0
AUDJPY +2,-2
Position
USDJPY -385, -520,-447, 17, (197,168,-26)
EURUSD 0

AUDJPY -415, -323, 13 (-188, -187)

4.3  Effect of planned trades

Account summary:
ActivTrades live account
Starting date: 1/4/2010
Starting capital: 1366
Line in the sand level:  750

1.  Account balance (Settled trades) and growth as a percentage.  (1469= 7%)
2.  Account equity (Including open positions) .  (1270= -7%)
3.  Account equity if planned trades go wrong
4.  Pip distance to line in the sand level.  5270, with gear (1) 5270

Sunday, May 16, 2010

Daily Briefing 100518

1.  Review.

I said I would expect risk off remaining low for the next weeks. I think EZ moves will be not convincing the markets and after a small rally EUR will break 1.25 low. I think there is more downside for risk assets even if fundamentals for US, CAD and AUD are good (some indicator will point to a pause anyway). I will expect a short risk asset rally where I close some risk asset exposure”. EUR Is trading 1.2362, almost with no pullbacks. Rally on risk asset was short, but the downside was limited and they rallied on Friday
Trades
My plan was to close risk assets longs on rally but I decided to change bias end of the week, cashing the short I placed almost mid-grid. I was not able to fully exploit EURUSD downside.

2.  Analysis.

"Fundamental analysis"
Fundamental analysis data from US are still slightly good, pointing to a support for the recovery, with unemployment stabilized around 440k but not decreasing. Consumer confidence is increasing. EZ PIIGS are placing in place austerity measures to handle their debt, even if debt/GDP ratio looks like to put some uncertain about the success of those measure (they will require i.e. with debt at 150% of GDP a 7.5% growth to pay only interest at 5%). BCE loan looks like to have postponed only into the future the problem with new debt. EZ economic is underperforming, interest rate differentials and repricing will weight on the EUR in mid-term view.
US hikes are still unclear, just when economic conditions would change appropriately. Gold went up despite the risk on/off shifts. Oil would be a better risk sentiment indicator, and it is pointing low.

"Technical analysis"
EURUSD broke 18 month low, and it looks like ahead to lower levels. It would be a short on rallies. EUR COT short are again at the historical lows (-113k), USD long are the same (+25k), JPY short are decreasing (-34k). USDJPY after hitting 88 level, Is trading back in the 93 area. It should be a buy on these dips. US futures were sold off. AUD long decreased. Basically, except for the EURUSD they all are at the same levels of Monday. GOLD/Oil ratio is going higher from a 13 in the last months to 16 and VIX is still at 34, pointing for a risk off sentiment.

"Market dynamics".
More downside is expected for the EURUSD (1.22 level); I would expect here a correction to 1.32 (adding a long). In the long run EURUSD is expected to go back to 1.18 levels, reselling then at 1.32-4 levels. I would expect risk off remaining low for the next week, but not deteriorate. I will see the risk asset rally at at attractive levels, adding positions to risk asset exposure.

Median grid
EURUSD GRID 1.2300 - 1.30, short bias (grid change)
USDJPY GRID 88.00-92.00, long bias
AUDJPY GRID 78.00-86.00, long bias

Basically still a risk-off bias, but pausing risk

Prices
US down at 1134, (Q1)
GOLD up at 1232 (Q2, grid change)
Crude 72
EURUSD 1.2362 (q1)
USDJPY 92.47 (Q1)

3.  Plan
I already added new trades; I will try to work out of the money positions for JPY longs;.

EURUSD
I will enter short on the yob level (1.2483) for a quick B&B and I will hedge on a couple of level up (-100 pips). I will wait then for a dip to enter a short B&B again at 1.348. I will add a long at 1.22 level
Comment:< >

USDJPY
I will work put to minimize loss for current short, closing current shorts
Comment:< >

AUDJPY
I will work put to minimize loss for current short, closing current shorts
Comment:< >

EURNOK
Take profit, at 7.74 level and add more shorts at pullback
Comment:< >

4.  Trades
4.1 open trades, their type & their value:

2 Open 13-apr-10 USDJPY L 93.2400 Q3 1:1 B&B 92.4700 -77.0000

7 Open 05-mag-10 USDJPY L 94.5900 Q2 1:1 B&B 92.4700 -212.0000
11 Open 06-mag-10 USDJPY L 93.8600 Q3 1:1 Panic 92.4700 -139.0000
14 Open 07-mag-10 USDJPY S 91.3600 Q1- 1:1 Hedge 92.4700 -111.0000
15 Open 07-mag-10 USDJPY S 91.0700 Q1- 1:1 Hedge 92.4700 -140.0000

16 Open14-mag-10 USDJPYL 92.3000 Q11:1 B&B 92.4700 17.0000
6 Open 04-mag-10 AUDJPY L 86.0500 Q4 1:1 B&B 81.9000 -415.0000

7 Open 06-mag-10 AUDJPY L 85.1300 Q4 1:1 B&B 81.9000 -323.0000

11 Open 07-mag-10 AUDJPY S 80.6500 Q2 1:1 Panic 81.9000 -125.0000
12 Open 07-mag-10 AUDJPY S 80.2100 Q1- 1:1Panic 81.9000 -169.0000

14 Open 14-mag-10 AUDJPY L 81.7700 Q2 1:1B&B 81.9000 13.0000
4.2 Leverage

Aggregate position size expressed as a gearing ratio (Ex = 4:1)

Total positions per currency:
USDJPY +4,-2
EURUSD 0
AUDJPY +3,-2
Position
USDJPY -77, -212,-139, 17, (-111,-140)
EURUSD 0

AUDJPY -415, -323, 13 (-125, -169)

4.3  Effect of planned trades

Account summary:
ActivTrades live account
Starting date: 1/4/2010
Starting capital: 1366
Line in the sand level:  750

1.  Account balance (Settled trades) and growth as a percentage.  (1447= 6%)
2.  Account equity (Including open positions) .  (1312= -4%)
3.  Account equity if planned trades go wrong
4.  Pip distance to line in the sand level.  5630, with gear (11) 511

Sunday, May 9, 2010

Daily Briefing 100508

1.  Review.

I said “I would expect risk on remaining low for the next week. If Greece aid package will be as expected we will see a EURUSD rally to resistance 1.340/1.345 area, where there could be selling pressure again. Low support is 1.320/1.325 area. AUD cash rate I expected rising 0.25 bps and this will cause a “sell the fact”. Important unemployment claims will give support to the recovery and the USD, that now is view as growth currency”. What can I say now? I was expecting a normal market and I tried to get advantage of JPY strength buying the dips on USDJPY and AUDJPY, until they crashed.
Trades
Lot of trades in panic mode, some of them with no much sense. I hedged almost everything.

2.  Analysis.

"Fundamental analysis"
Fundamental analysis data from US are not so bad, pointing to a support for the recovery. Some issues as China restricting credit, EZ sovereign debt increasing,) would lead to a pause in the recovery. Maybe easy money with low interest rate has been made and risky assets are going to worsen. EZ summit will have a big impact on risk sentiment: BCE said he will everything to sustain the euro.

"Technical analysis"
Last Thursday move broke every kind of support and left market nervous sing on TA view . EUR COT short are again at the historical lows (-103k), USD long are decreasing (+25k), JPY short are increasing (-65k), despite yen gains and but still at historical lows. USDJPY hit 88 level. US futures were heavily sold off. AUD long sharply decreased

"Market dynamics".
I would expect risk off remaining low for the next weeks. I think EZ moves will be not convincing the markets and after a small rally EUR will break 1.25 low. I think there is more downside for risk assets even if fundamentals for US, CAD and AUD are good (some indicator will point to a pause anyway).

I will expect a short risk asset rally where I close some risk asset exposure-

Median grid
EURUSD GRID 1.2700 - 1.3100, short bias
USDJPY GRID 88.00-92.00, neutral bias
AUDJPY GRID 78.00-86.00, short bias, maybe a grid adjustment
Basically still a risk-off bias

Prices
US up at 1107, (Q3)
GOLD at 1207 (Q4+)
Crude 75.37
EURUSD 1.2745 (M)
USDJPY 91.25 (Q1)

3.  Plan
Add new trades: I will try to work out loss positions; I will expect to close them with a loss (JPY short) in a rally before changing bias to JPY long and risk off.

EURUSD
I will enter short on the yob level (1.28) for a quick B&B and I will hedge on a couple of level up (-100 pips). I will wait then for a dip to enter a short B&B again at 1.348.
Comment:< >

USDJPY
I will work put to minimize loss for current long
Comment:< >

AUDJPY
I will work put to minimize loss for current long
Comment:< >

EURNOK
I will work put to minimize loss for current long
Comment:< >

4.  Trades
4.1 open trades, their type & their value:

3 Open 06-mag-10 EURUSD S 1.2617 Q1- 1:1 B&B 1.2754 -137.0000 -108.583657
2 Open 13-apr-10 USDJPY L 93.2400 Q3 1:1 B&B 94.0000 76.0000 70.8624
6 Open 05-mag-10 USDJPY L 93.2400 Q2 1:1 B&B 91.5700 -167.0000 -155.7108
7 Open 05-mag-10 USDJPY L 94.5900 Q2 1:1 B&B 91.5700 -302.0000 -285.6618
11 Open 06-mag-10 USDJPY L 93.8600 Q3 1:1 Panic 90.0700 -379.0000 -355.7294
13 Open 07-mag-10 USDJPY L 90.5200 Q2 1:1 B&B 91.5700 105.0000 95.046
14 Open 07-mag-10 USDJPY S 91.3600 Q1- 1:1 Hedge 91.5700 -21.0000 -19.1856
15 Open 07-mag-10 USDJPY S 91.0700 Q1- 1:1 Hedge 91.5700 -50.0000 -45.535
6 Open 04-mag-10 AUDJPY L 86.0500 Q4 1:1 B&B 81.3300 -472.0000 -406.156
7 Open 06-mag-10 AUDJPY L 85.1300 Q4 1:1 B&B 81.3300 -380.0000 -323.494
9 Open 07-mag-10 AUDJPY L 80.1300 Q2 1:1 Panic 81.3300 120.0000 96.156
11 Open 07-mag-10 AUDJPY S 80.6500 Q2 1:1 Panic 80.1700 48.0000 38.712
12 Open 07-mag-10 AUDJPY S 80.2100 Q1- 1:1 Panic 80.1700 4.0000 3.2084

4.2 Leverage

Aggregate position size expressed as a gearing ratio (Ex = 4:1)

Total positions per currency:
USDJPY +5,-2
EURUSD -1
AUDJPY +2,-2
Position
USDJPY 70, -155,-285,-355 (-19,-45)
EURUSD 0 (-108)
AUDJPY -478, -380, 120 (48,4)

4.3  Effect of planned trades

Account summary:
ActivTrades live account
Starting date: 1/4/2010
Starting capital: 1366
Line in the sand level:  750

1.  Account balance (Settled trades) and growth as a percentage.  (1426= 4%)
2.  Account equity (Including open positions) .  (1286= -5.8%)
3.  Account equity if planned trades go wrong
4.  Pip distance to line in the sand level.  5300, with gear 385

Saturday, May 1, 2010

Daily Briefing 100503

1.  Review.

I said “l I would expect risk on remaining for the week. JPY top breakout are to be monitored closely and soon. I would expect EURUSD rally to last short and be under pressure again.”. After the Greece crisis aid package solution the was a risk rally that looks like failed by end of Friday. EUR gained probably for short position covering.
Trades

I am stuck with the hedged USDJPY (edged at the extreme low at 91.7); I I cashed another EURNOK with profit closed and added another short on a dip. Gold is still hedged with loss.

2.  Analysis.

"Fundamental analysis"
US data is good and this confirm that recovery is gaining momentum even for increasing consumer spending (GDP 3.2%). No Fed changes were in this week. Fundamentals are confirming the recovery with positive PMI from China. Conference for Greece aid is expected this weekend and the expected package will support EUR. Rate differential are weighting EUR, cash rate is expected remaining the same as there are not inflationary signs around.

"Technical analysis"

Risk currencies topped at Friday suggesting recent ranges could held. Only Gold broke the top, a hard to break 1170 level, and this is probably a risk off sign. EURUSD gained the mid grid level, but the long term outlook is still south, UBS still at 1.3. EUR COT short are again at the historical lows (-89k), USD long are decreasing (+25k), JPY short are pausing (-49k), but still at historical lows. USDJPY 94.5 high hold. US futures were heavily sold off late Friday.

"Market dynamics".
I would expect risk on remaining low for the next week. If Greece aid package will be as expected we will see a EURUSD rally to resistance 1.340/1.345 area, where there could be selling pressure again. Low support is 1.320/1.325 area. AUD cash rate I expected rising 0.25 bps and this will cause a “sell the fact”.

Important unemployment claims will give support to the recovery and the USD, that now is view as growth currency.

Median grid

EURUSD GRID 1.3100 - 1.3700, short bias
USDJPY GRID 88.00-92.00, long bias
AUDJPY GRID 78.00-86.00, long bias, maybe a grid adjustment
Basically still a risk-on bias

Prices

US up at 1185, (Q3)
GOLD at 1178 (Q4+)
Crude 86.1
EURUSD 1.3295 (M)
USDJPY 93.85 (Q2)

3.  Plan

Add new trades: I will do B&B trades with long term trades.

EURUSD
I will enter long on the yob level (1.33) for a quick B&B and I will hedge on a couple of level up (-100 pips). I will wait then for a dip to enter a short B&B again at 1.348.
Comment:< >

USDJPY
I will enter a long B&B on the next yob level (93.16, even if looks like a median price; maybe is a good buy at 92.67 level) as pullback 1:1, I will hedge on a couple of level down (-100 pips).
Comment:< >

AUDJPY
Risk off is mounting. I will add a long on the previous yob level (86.0 or 85.32) as pullback 1:1, I will stop out on a level down (-100 pips).
Comment:< >

EURNOK
Add another short if pullback at 7.87.
Comment:< >

4.  Trades

4.1 open trades, their type & their value:

13-apr-10 USDJPY L 93.2400 Q3 1:1 B&B 94.0000 76.0000 70.8624
19-apr-10 USDJPY S 91.6100 Q1 1:1 Hedge 94.0000 -239.0000 -218.9479
23-apr-10 USDJPY L 93.9800 Q1 1:1 B&B 94.0000 2.0000 1.6096
3 Open 23-apr-10 AUDJPY L 86.7100 Q4 1:1 B&B 19.1500 16.0000

4.2 Leverage

Aggregate position size expressed as a gearing ratio (Ex = 4:1)

Total positions per currency:
USDJPY +2,-1
EURUSD 0
AUDJPY +1
Position
USDJPY 2, 76 (239)
EURUSD 0 (0)
AUDJPY 17 (0)

4.3  Effect of planned trades

Account summary:
ActivTrades live account
Starting date: 1/4/2010
Starting capital: 1366
Line in the sand level:  750

1.  Account balance (Settled trades) and growth as a percentage.  (1395= 2%)
2.  Account equity (Including open positions) .  (1382= 1%)
3.  Account equity if planned trades go wrong
4.  Pip distance to line in the sand level.  6300, with gear 1580