Daily Briefing 100823

1.  Review.

I wrote “Even if a consider that one should more focused on interest differentials these days are more oriented for a short term approach based on risk-on/off. USD weakness looks like already priced, but further slowdown could be led to EUR strength (WA says after price is bottomed 1.24). EUR felled very quickly; 1.28 is a first support area, next will be 1.24.” Bad US data make the EUR fell to 1.27 breaking the 1.28 support level. “Irish bond auction should be monitored on Tuesday to see risk sentiment against EUR and CDS for Irish bonds. Short term financial data look like not supportive for EUR . I will watch closely the 1.28 support to confirm the EUR bullish sentiment.” The support held during the auctions but failed on bad Thursday employment data. “Tuesday there will be lot of numbers from US, PPI, house data and manufacturing.” Those number were mixed, bad Thursdays bad data switched to a risk off sentiment. “Regarding JPY and BoJ intervention I will monitor 1. JGB yields (I see it on CNBC ticker) its 1.00% now. 2. US 10 yr yields 2.72% now, low 2.67% since Fed. 3. German bund yields. 4. USDJPY price action during any risk off & risk on events. Those data will help to determine if JPY has bottomed”. JGB are 0.94%, TYN 2.62%, Bunds at 2.26%. JPY gained on bad data release at the 85.0, the support hold and recovery to the 86.5. This is the fourth failed test to the 85.0 handle in two weeks.
Trades
Bad drawdown at -630€ at the end of the week , still waiting for the risk-on increase; just a hope after bad US data?

2.  Analysis.

"Fundamental analysis"
Last week was characterized by mixed US data and some bad data on Friday that led to a flight to safety and a risk-off sentiment again. Some good data come again ZEW and German data, but it was offset by bad US data and flight to safety. Long term upside move looks like limited, due to the austerity measures and the growth anyway slow. It is difficult to see a bottom in this risk reversal sentiment, after risk on played for a couple of weeks. Friday data ware totally unexpected, but show that US is not really on a growth path. Anyway the data are considered not that important and maybe could be a tiny market action. Gold jumped above 1200. China is buying EUR and JPY, dumping US bonds. Greece and German spread increased again (www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=.GRK:IND). BoJ intervention is linked to US growth; if positive data JPY would weaken without need of intervention, but strong JPY could stay for a long time.

"Technical analysis"
EURUSD felled at the 1.27 levels, and the 1.28 did not hold; if further downside next stop is 1.24. EUR COT short increased after rising since June again (-7k), USD long increased (+18.7k) and USD index hold in the 80 support area; JPY is increasing long positions long (+50k). USDJPY traded in the 86 area. Probably is staying down here in these dips. US futures retraced from the 1100 highs to 1070 (confirming the failure to close above 100 and 200 day MA). AUD are increasing (54k), showing a bias versus risk-on positions, very strange in this risk-off sentiment. GOLD/Oil ratio raised at 16.3, from the 15 level since begin of July, with both oil down and gold surging; but VIX stays at the 25.5: did we saw a double bottom? Gold hit 1237, pointing to the previous high 1260 area.

"Market dynamics”
Again I say that these days are more oriented for a short term approach based on risk-on/off. USD weakness looks like already priced, but further slowdown could be led to EUR strength (WA says after price is bottomed 1.24). EUR felled very quickly; 1.28 first support area looks like broken, next will be 1.24. Spread Greek German bonds should be monitored and can sustain negative EUR action. Short term financial data look like not supportive for EUR. I will watch closely the 1.28 support to confirm the EUR bullish sentiment. Regarding JPY and BoJ intervention I will monitor again JGB yields, US 10 yr yields, German bund yields and USDJPY price action during any risk off & risk on events. Those data will help to determine if JPY has bottomed. Rumors of BoJ intervention and possible meeting with BoJ and government could cause JPY volatility.

Median grid
EURUSD GRID 1.280 - 1.350, (grid change), neutral bias
USDJPY GRID 84.00-88.00, neutral bias
AUDJPY GRID 73.00-81.00, short bias

Basically still a risk-off bias by the end of week

Prices
US down at 1077, (Q2)
GOLD up at 1237 (Q3)
Crude 72.17
EURUSD 1.2717 (Q1)
USDJPY 85.261(Q2)

3.  Plan
I will try again to work out of the money positions for JPY longs, just sitting on them for now. I will try to book the B&B long EURUSD and reenter position on a dip; I will monitor

EURUSD
I will close the long if further downside at 1.2630. If not I will enter a long B&B on the yob level (1.2795) as retracement; I will hedge on a couple of level down (-100 pips). I will take profit at 50-100 pips
Comment:< >

USDJPY
Already too many positions (+6)
Comment:< >

AUDJPY
Already too many positions (+3)
Comment:< >

EURNOK
Hold short positions

Comment:< >

4.  Trades
4.1 open trades, their type & their value:
7 Open 13-ago-10 EURUSD L 1.2805 Q1 1:1 B&B 1.2717 -88.0000

2 Open 13-apr-10 USDJPY L 93.2400 Q3 1:1 toe-in 85.79 -713.0000
6 Open 05-mag-10 USDJPY L 94.5900 Q2 1:1 toe-in 85.79 -851.0000
10 Open 06-mag-10 USDJPY L 93.8600 Q3 1:1 Panic 85.79 -776.0000
16 Open 14-mag-10 USDJPY L 92.3000 Q1 1:1 B&B 85.79 -619.0000
18 Open 02-giu-10 USDJPY L 92.2100 Q2 1:1 B&B 85.79 -619.0000
19 Open 30-lug-10 USDJPY L 86.3400 Q2 1:1 B&B 85.79 -64.0000
6 Open 04-mag-10 AUDJPY L 86.0500 Q4 1:1 toe-in 75.83 -1021.0000
7 Open 06-mag-10 AUDJPY L 85.1300 Q4 1:1 toe-in 75.83 -929.0000
17 Open 03-giu-10 AUDJPY L 78.8500 Q1- 1:1 Hedge 75.83 -237.0000

4.2 Leverage

Aggregate position size expressed as a gearing ratio (Ex = 4:1)

Total positions per currency:
USDJPY +6
EURUSD +1
AUDJPY +3
Position
USDJPY -713, -851,-776, -619, -610, -64
EURUSD -88
AUDJPY -1021, -927, -237

4.3  Effect of planned trades

Account summary:
ActivTrades live account
682Starting capital: 1366
Line in the sand level:  750

1.  Account balance (Settled trades) and growth as a percentage.  (1445=5%)
2.  Account equity (Including open positions) .  (8794= -35%)
3.  Account equity if planned trades go wrong: 1000
4.  Pip distance to line in the sand level.  1294, with gear (10) 129

Daily Briefing 100816

1.  Review.

I wrote “EURUSD rally seems to be likely to stay at the 1.32 levels, as median (now 1.28 and 1.35 levels would be the range); EURUSD bias is to be set to neutral.  Interest differential are playing a role now: the spread between EUR and USD 3 month labor is at 0.4 boosting the EUR. Rising EUR labor is not a worry if not accompanied by a falling USD labor. There reason that the spread will weaken in the next weeks signaling a medium top in EURUSD.  For the moment USD is still a sell and I will enter on long on dips below the 1.3 level” EUR was sold off after the Fed meeting stopping the weakening at 1.28 level. “Next week FOMC meeting will be one of the most important of the year. If further QE will be announced bond yields will fall sending the USD lower (good for JPY long). If not, that is Fed will not buy back Treasuries) there is potential risk for a Treasuries sell off, sending  yields and USD higher (good for JPY shorts).”  No QE, but just bad outlook for the economy from the Fed and there was a fight to safety with JPY strength, low US T-Note yields and EUR sell off. Anyway lower yields did not strengthen JY that much, maybe is a JPY bottom here at 85 level.  JPY regained 86 handle at the end of the week. “ German data are good and the ECB bonds buy back is about to close; other parts of EZ do not show any sign of growth, giving not much space for tightening.  There is then some space to the upside but the medium term is still mined from fiscal concerns”. Good German GDP data did not make EUR rise.
Trades
Holding the same drawdown at -560€ at the end of the week , still waiting for the risk-on increase to decrease the drawdown. Entered a EURNOK short the 12/08 at 7.955 and a EURUSD the 13/08 long at 1.2805

2.  Analysis.

"Fundamental analysis"
Last week was characterized by the Fed meeting that led to a flight to safety and a risk-off sentiment. After that,  employment data was a bad data as usual. Good data from inventory and retail sales. Good data come again from GDP German data, but it was offset by bad bond auction in Italy and bad data from the periphery. Gold jumped as fight to safety surged. Yield from EZ periphery surged as German yields felt. CDS for Irish are at the 17 months high. Friday data did not had a big impact on EURUSD, but boosted the USD some pips.

"Technical analysis"
EURUSD felled at the  1.28 levels. Even if long positions could be taken on this dip, there is potential USD strength. Long term upside move looks like limited, due to the austerity measures and the growth anyway slow. EUR COT short decreased again (-7k), USD long are stable (+12.3k), no more divergence and USD index is now in the 80 support area; JPY is increasing long positions long (+48k).  USDJPY traded in the 86 area. Probably is staying down here in these dips. US futures retested the 1100 highs, but there is a failure to close above 100 and 200 day MA. AUD are increasing (49k), showing a bias versus risk-on positions. GOLD/Oil ratio is raised at 16, from the 15 level since begin of July, with both oil down and gold surging;  but VIX jumped at the 26: did we saw a double bottom? Gold hit 1213, pointing to the previous high 1260 area.

"Market dynamics”
Even if a consider that one should  more focused on interest differentials these days are more oriented for a short term approach based on risk-on/off. USD weakness looks like already priced, but further slowdown could be led to EUR strength (WA says after price is bottomed 1.24).  EUR felled very quickly; 1.28 is a first support area, next will be 1.24. Irish bond auction should be monitored on Tuesday to see risk sentiment against EUR and CDS for Irish bonds. Short term financial data look like not supportive  for EUR . I will watch closely the 1.28 support to confirm the EUR bullish sentiment. Tuesday there will be lot of numbers from US, PPI, house data and manufacturing.  Regarding JPY and BoJ intervention I will monitor  1.  JGB yields (I see it on CNBC ticker) its 1.00% now. 2.  US 10 yr yields 2.72% now, low 2.67% since Fed. 3.  German bund yields. 4.  USDJPY price action during any risk off & risk on events.  Those data will help to determine if JPY has bottomed. Long term questions are:
- how bad will be in US or when we will see the bottom (is this bad outlook just a swing in the recovery)?
- will be the global recovery possible without the US?
- what will be the position of EZ (as anti dollar) and China (they carry the flag “the globe can go alone”)
This is the main story but speculative position will be more short term oriented and risk-on/off based.

Median grid
EURUSD GRID 1.280 - 1.350, (grid change), neutral bias
USDJPY GRID 84.00-88.00, neutral bias
AUDJPY GRID 73.00-81.00, short bias

Basically still a risk-off bias by the end of week

 Prices
US  down at 1081, (Q2)
GOLD up at 1213 (Q3)
 Crude 75.17
EURUSD 1.2767 (Q1)
USDJPY 86.23 (Q3)

3.  Plan
I will try again to work out of the money positions for JPY longs, just sitting on them for now. I will try to book the B&B long EURUSD and reenter position on a dip; I will monitor

 

EURUSD
I will enter a long B&B on the yob level (1.2958) as retracement; I will hedge on a couple of level down (-100 pips). I will take profit at 50-100 pips
Comment:< >

USDJPY
Already too many positions (+6)
I will enter a long B&B on the yob level (85.16) as retracement, if the 85 level is hold; I will hedge on a couple of level down (-100 pips). I will take profit at 50-100 pips
Comment:< >

 

AUDJPY
Already too many positions (+3)
I will enter a short  B&B on the yob level (78.31) as retracement; I will hedge on a couple of level down (-100 pips). I will take profit at 50-100 pips
Comment:< >

 

EURNOK
Hold short positions

Comment:< >

 

4.  Trades
4.1 open trades, their type & their value:

7 Open 13-ago-10 EURUSD L 1.2805 Q1 1:1 B&B 1.2769 -36.0000

2 Open  13-apr-10   USDJPY  L   93.2400 Q3  1:1 toe-in  86.23 -701.0000  
6 Open  05-mag-10   USDJPY  L   94.5900 Q2  1:1 toe-in  86.23  -836.0000
10 Open 06-mag-10   USDJPY  L   93.8600 Q3  1:1 Panic   86.23 -763.0000
16 Open 14-mag-10   USDJPY  L   92.3000 Q1  1:1 B&B 86.23 -607.0000
18 Open 02-giu-10 USDJPY L 92.2100 Q2 1:1 B&B 86.23 -597.0000
19 Open 30-lug-10 USDJPY L 86.3400 Q2 1:1 B&B 86.23 -11.0000
6 Open  04-mag-10   AUDJPY  L   86.0500 Q4  1:1 toe-in  77.23 -882.0000
7 Open  06-mag-10   AUDJPY  L   85.1300 Q4  1:1 toe-in  77.23 -790.0000
17 Open 03-giu-10   AUDJPY  L   78.8500 Q1- 1:1 Hedge   77.23   -162.0000

4.2 Leverage

Aggregate position size expressed as a gearing ratio (Ex = 4:1)

Total positions per currency:
USDJPY  +6
EURUSD 1
AUDJPY +3
Position
USDJPY -701, -836,-763, -607, -597, -11
EURUSD -36
AUDJPY -882, -790, -162

4.3  Effect of planned trades

 

Account summary:
ActivTrades live account
682Starting capital: 1366
Line in the sand level:  750
 

1.  Account balance (Settled trades) and growth as a percentage.  (1445=5%)
2.  Account equity (Including open positions) .  (9536= -3%)
3.  Account equity if planned trades go wrong: 1000
4.  Pip distance to line in the sand level.   2036, with gear (10) 203

Risk on/off or interests differential approach

“There are now two divergent views in the currency markets. One has traders buying the dollar as a safe haven when the US data is bad, and selling dollars moving into ‘risk trades’ when the economic data in the US is positive. The other view which has recently started to catch on has currency traders selling dollars on bad economic news in the US, and buying the greenbacks when the data is strong. This is a more traditional approach, and focuses on interest rate differentials. When the US data is bad, the thought is that the FOMC will be forced to keep rates low. On the flip side, when the US data shows a stronger recovery, a potential FOMC tightening moves traders to buy the dollar. Choosing which strategy to use is determined by your thoughts on the global recovery. If you believe the global recovery can’t happen without the US consumer, then you choose the ‘safe haven’ approach. But if you feel, as I do, that the rest of the world is going to be able to recover without a strong US consumer, then your focus shifts back to interest rate differentials and the global growth story.”
Form Daily Pfenning 8/6/2010

Daily Briefing 100809

1.  Review.

I wrote “EURUSD rally seems to be likely to stay at the 1.30/1 levels, as median (1.25 and 1.32 levels would be the range); The chances are that the EURUSD will go back in the grid or a clear break of the 1.32 level will bring it to the 1.33/4 area. and I will enter on long on dips below the 1.3 level”. EURUSD broke 1.32 level on Friday US job report. No decent dips before this move to enter a long position. “Releases this week will be important for US almost every day and I will look on that as confirmation about US weakness”. I will not expect a strong JPY against US;” USD lose ground versus EUR , JPY and AUD.” BoJ intervention is expected below 85. “ JPY Trade minister said he is very concerned about yen rise and they would need to take some action in future. “Long term outlook is still positive for AUD and CAD. Weakness of JPY cross are more for risk off view (JPY as safe heaven) then for bad fundamentals”. Anyway wome data below the expected was disappointing for the AUD.
Trades
Holding the same now “only” -526€ at the end of the week , looking for the expected risk on increase to decrease the drawdown. No trades this week.

2.  Analysis.

"Fundamental analysis"
Last week was characterized by a lot of US fundamentals; employment data was a bad data, despite some positive comment by US president, determining again a dollar weakness, suggesting again that this a recovery with no employment and just supported by government spending. Only good data were ISM for manufacturing and non manufacturing. Good data come again from EZ, especially from the German data. Gold after a sharp decline regained its levels and jumped on US job jamboree. Fed is expected calling for more QE and moving forward rate hikes expectances. This factor anyway could be already priced in and QE announcement could not weaken the USD.

"Technical analysis"
EURUSD jumped around 1.33 levels. Long positions could be taken on dips, but upside move looks like limited, due to the austerity measures and the growth anyway slow. EUR COT short decreased again (-7k), USD long are stable (+12.3k), no more divergence and USD index is now in the 80 support area; JPY is increasing long positions long (+48k). USDJPY traded in the 86 area. Probably is staying down here in these dips. US futures retested the 1100 highs, but there is a failure to close above 100 and 200 day MA. AUD are increasing (49k), showing a bias versus risk-on positions. GOLD/Oil ratio is stalling at 15 since begging of July, with both oil and gold surging; but VIX is not that volatile now at 21 support level. Gold after taking the 1156 lows high is now back at 1205, pointing to go back to the 1300 area.

"Market dynamics”
A good summary about the market sentiment comes from A Pfennig for Your Thoughts 8/6/2010; there are now two divergent views: the first is the risk-on/risk-off; they buy USD on bad USD data, as safe haven currency and they sell USD on good US data, moving into risk trades. The second has a more classical approach based on interest differentials; they sell USD on bad US data, because the interest will kept low and they buy USD when data are good, because of potential interest tightening. The last approach has recently got investors interest. I should chose one strategy based on the economy recovery expectation: if I think that the recovery cannot be without US consumers I will chose the first; if I think that the recovery can be without US consumers, but the rest of the world will be enough, I will chose the second, more focused on interest differentials. I think I will be for the second approach.
EURUSD rally seems to be likely to stay at the 1.32 levels, as median (now 1.28 and 1.35 levels would be the range); EURUSD bias is to be set to neutral. Interest differential are playing a role now: the spread between EUR and USD 3 month labor is at 0.4 boosting the EUR. Rising EUR labor is not a worry if not accompanied by a falling USD labor. There reason that the spread will weaken in the next weeks signaling a medium top in EURUSD. For the moment USD is still a sell and I will enter on long on dips below the 1.3 level. Next week FOMC meeting will be one of the most important of the year. If further QE will be announced bond yields will fall sending the USD lower (good for JPY long). If not, that is Fed will not buy back Treasuries) there is potential risk for a Treasuries sell off, sending yields and USD higher (good for JPY shorts). German data are good and the ECB bonds buy back is about to close; other parts of EZ do not show any sign of growth, giving not much space for tightening. There is then some space to the upside but the medium term is still mined from fiscal concerns.

Median grid
EURUSD GRID 1.280 - 1.350, (grid change), neutral bias
USDJPY GRID 88.00-92.00, neutral bias
AUDJPY GRID 73.00-81.00, short bias

Basically still a risk-off bias by the end of week

Prices
US up at 1119, (Q4)
GOLD up at 1205 (Q3)
Crude 80.82
EURUSD 1.3280 (Q3)
USDJPY 86.5 (Q3)

3.  Plan
I will try again to work out of the money positions for JPY longs, just sitting on them for now. I will try to enter a long EURUSD position on a dip; I will monitor EURSEK for a long if there is a retracement. I will add a short on EURNOK

EURUSD
I will enter a long B&B on the yob level (1.3020) as retracement; I will hedge on a couple of level down (-100 pips). I will take profit at 50-100 pips
Comment:< >

USDJPY
Already too many positions (+6)
Comment:< >

AUDJPY
Already too many positions (+3)
I will enter a short B&B on the yob level (78.31) as retracement; I will hedge on a couple of level down (-100 pips). I will take profit at 50-100 pips
Comment:< >

EURNOK
Hold short positions

I will enter a short B&B on the yob level (7.9) as retracement; I will hedge on a couple of level down (-100 pips). I will take profit at 50-100 pips
Comment:< >

4.  Trades
4.1 open trades, their type & their value:

2 Open 13-apr-10 USDJPY L 93.2400 Q3 1:1 toe-in 85.50 -774.0000
6 Open 05-mag-10 USDJPY L 94.5900 Q2 1:1 toe-in 85.50 -859.0000
10 Open 06-mag-10 USDJPY L 93.8600 Q3 1:1 Panic 85.50 -784.0000
16 Open 14-mag-10 USDJPY L 92.3000 Q1 1:1 B&B 85.50 -627.0000
18 Open 02-giu-10 USDJPY L 92.2100 Q2 1:1 B&B 85.50 -618.0000
19 Open 30-lug-10 USDJPY L 86.3400 Q2 1:1 B&B 85.50 -72.0000
6 Open 04-mag-10 AUDJPY L 86.0500 Q4 1:1 toe-in 78.48 -757.0000
7 Open 06-mag-10 AUDJPY L 85.1300 Q4 1:1 toe-in 78.48 -665.0000
17 Open 03-giu-10 AUDJPY L 78.8500 Q1- 1:1 Hedge 78.48 -29.0000

4.2 Leverage

Aggregate position size expressed as a gearing ratio (Ex = 4:1)

Total positions per currency:
USDJPY +6
EURUSD 0
AUDJPY +3
Position
USDJPY -774, -859,-784, -627, -618, -72
EURUSD 0
AUDJPY -757, -668, -29

4.3  Effect of planned trades

Account summary:
ActivTrades live account
682Starting capital: 1366
Line in the sand level:  750

1.  Account balance (Settled trades) and growth as a percentage.  (1445=5%)
2.  Account equity (Including open positions) .  (9474= -31%)
3.  Account equity if planned trades go wrong: 1000
4.  Pip distance to line in the sand level.  1974, with gear (9) 219

Daily Briefing 100802

1.  Review.

I wrote “EURUSD rally seems to be likely to stay at the 1.3 levels, as median (1.25 and 1.32 levels would be the range); It looks like that the EURUSD downtrend is broken and the EURUSD bias is to be set to long and I will enter on long on dips below the 1.3 level”. This was confirmed by this week price action, testing the 1.32 level and then staying in the 1.31 area. ECB slowed down its bong repurchase program. “I will look on that as confirmation about EZ strength and US weakness.“ Data from US confirmed US weakness “I will expect a strong JPY against US; BoJ intervention is expected below 85.”. JPY could benefit from a rising Yuan, then the 10Y note should be monitored for a sharp rise, that will call for a BoJ intervention (because in this case the JPY will rise due to the lack of support of US buying). US data ware confirming weakness in recovery. EU data instead confirmed an unexpected strong rise in economy.
Trades
Holding the “only” -487€ at the end of the week , looking for the expected risk on increase to decrease the drawdown. I entered a long USDJPY at 86.34, but I did not the 88 level short.

2.  Analysis.

"Fundamental analysis"
Last week was characterized again by a dollar weakness, undermined by a potential slow down in the recovery, with no good fundamentals data: low consumer confidence, low orders, no improvement on the jobs, slow down in the GDP . Good data come instead from EZ, especially from the German data. Gold after a sharp decline (option expiring date) regained its levels. Fed said that economy may not regain its path until 2016, calling for more QE and moving forward rate hikes expectances. There is a call for a deflation risk in US and the QE policy will be support it.

"Technical analysis"
EURUSD stayed around 1.31 levels. It would be not anymore short on rallies but long positions could be taken on dips. EUR COT short decreased again (-21k), USD long are stable (+14k), showing the big divergence is finally converging and USD index is slowly pointing to the 80 support area; JPY is decreasing long positions long (+29k). USDJPY traded in the 86 area. Probably is staying down here in these dips. US futures retested the 1100 highs, even with 68% of surprising earnings it did not rise that much. AUD are increasing (40k), showing a bias versus risk-on positions. GOLD/Oil ratio is stalling at 15 since begging of July; but VIX is still less volatile now at 24, but always suggest a uncertainness in the markets. Gold after taking the 1156 lows high is now back at 1180, pointing to go back to the 1200 area.

"Market dynamics”
EURUSD rally seems to be likely to stay at the 1.30/1 levels, as median (1.25 and 1.32 levels would be the range); like that the EURUSD downtrend is broken and the EURUSD bias is to be set to long. The chances are that the EURUSD will go back in the grid or a clear break of the 1.32 level will bring it to the 1.33/4 area. and I will enter on long on dips below the 1.3 level. Risk sentiment, that is giving boost to the EUS, is still uncertain and I will not buy on a breakout. Moody’s downgrade comments and end month portfolio balancing weighted on US last week, but this week economic data can do the same to weight the USD. Some technical factor could support US anyway. Releases this week will be important for US almost every day and I will look on that as confirmation about US weakness. High uncertainty is still alive and short term view should be taken. I will not expect a strong JPY against US; BoJ intervention is expected below 85. Long term outlook is still positive for AUD and CAD. Weakness of JPY cross are more for risk off view (JPY as safe heaven) then for bad fundamentals.

Median grid
EURUSD GRID 1.250 - 1.320, (grid change), long bias
USDJPY GRID 88.00-92.00, neutral bias
AUDJPY GRID 73.00-81.00, short bias

Basically still a risk-on bias by the end of week

Prices
US up at 1099, (Q4)
GOLD down at 1180 (Q2)
Crude 78.93
EURUSD 1.3051 (Q1+)
USDJPY 86.5 (Q1-)

3.  Plan
I will try again to work out of the money positions for JPY longs and enter a long EURUSD position; I will monitor EURSEK for a long if there is a retracement.

EURUSD
I will enter a long B&B on the yob level (1.2860) as retracement; I will hedge on a couple of level down (-100 pips). I can open a new toe in long same level. I will take profit at 50-100 pips
Comment:< >

USDJPY
Already too many positions (+6)
Comment:< >

AUDJPY
Already too many positions (+3)
Comment:< >

EURNOK
Hold short positions
Comment:< >

4.  Trades
4.1 open trades, their type & their value:

2 Open 13-apr-10 USDJPY L 93.2400 Q3 1:1 toe-in 86.46 -678.0000
6 Open 05-mag-10 USDJPY L 94.5900 Q2 1:1 toe-in 86.46 -813.0000
10 Open 06-mag-10 USDJPY L 93.8600 Q3 1:1 Panic 86.46 -740.0000
16 Open 14-mag-10 USDJPY L 92.3000 Q1 1:1 B&B 86.46 -485.0000
18 Open 02-giu-10 USDJPY L 92.2100 Q2 1:1 B&B 86.46 -575.0000
19 Open 30-lug-10 USDJPY L 86.3400 Q2 1:1 B&B 86.46 12.0000
6 Open 04-mag-10 AUDJPY L 86.0500 Q4 1:1 toe-in 78.17 -788.0000
7 Open 06-mag-10 AUDJPY L 85.1300 Q4 1:1 toe-in 78.17 -696.0000
17 Open 03-giu-10 AUDJPY L 78.8500 Q1- 1:1 Hedge 78.17 -68.0000

4.2 Leverage
Aggregate position size expressed as a gearing ratio (Ex = 4:1)

Total positions per currency:
USDJPY +6
EURUSD 0
AUDJPY +3
Position
USDJPY -678, -813,-740, -485, -575, 12
EURUSD 0
AUDJPY -788, -696, -68

4.3  Effect of planned trades

Account summary:
ActivTrades live account
682Starting capital: 1366
Line in the sand level:  750

1.  Account balance (Settled trades) and growth as a percentage.  (1445=5%)
2.  Account equity (Including open positions) .  (10018= -27%)
3.  Account equity if planned trades go wrong: 1000
4.  Pip distance to line in the sand level.  2518, with gear (9) 279