Daily Briefing 110509

1.  Review.

I said “USD is biased on the downside after FCOM meeting a GDP data I still maintain bullish view on EURUSD with ECB and FED on divergence, probably we will stay in the new grid for a month or two and I am expecting the 1.44/45 as support ; I will buy a dip in the 1.44 area in search of a break of recent highs, looking for a move to 1.5 level.” No rush to enter; now at 1.315. See if these levels hold. “We have not rush to sell USD at these levels and we will wait for dips at these levels:
EURUSD 1.4450/1.450, AUDUSD 1.045/1.050, USDCHF 0.8950/0.990, USDCAD 0.980/0.985
Dips in USDJPY are a buying opportunity. I will buy USDJPY if back in the 81 area (FED stance will probably make USDJPY under perform in respect of other JPY crosses).” I did this time.
JPY crosses failed this week to extend gains: I will buy AUDJPY and CADJPY that are now retracing at these low levels, hoping for a pullback to higher levels (AUDJPY has 90 level to break and USDJPY 85). “ I bought AUDJPY and EURJPY. “This “final rally and sell off” mode can have a rally that could last this June. We should carefully watch silver (like the canary in a coal mine) and now is telling that we are like at the end of this risk on period.
Trades
USDJPY long at 81.5. AUDJPY, EURJPY Closed USDJPY hedged

2.  Analysis.

"Fundamental analysis data"
ISM declined 53 58 57

NFP 244k 185k 221
Unemployment claims 474k 415k 431k
Unemployment Rate 9.o% 8,8% 8.8%
EZ rate unchanged, message dovish than expected.
"Fundamental analysis"
ISM decline was interpreted as a danger for the US recovery, but it is usually a volatile number . Other data points instead to an apace recovery, even if fragile. Key event FED speech was QE2 will continue till the end of June, no sooner than later rate hikes and “extended period” words remained. Remembering again PIMCO people is suggesting that US is going back to a lower growth, but not recession. FED confirmed this and policy is on hold.
EURUSD sovereign debt issues are regaining strength, spreads and CDs are at higher values this week too, but EUR is gaining strength..
ECB leaved rate as now. Trichet did not used “strong vigilance” terms, we will expect a rate hike not earlier than next July meeting. This caused a heavy EURUSD sell off.
Silver and Gold still very sold this week, they should have reached a pause. This sell off shows that gold and silver are still not bought by institutional; a strong fundamental move would need for large institutional buying and a strong dollar. Silver drop is a asset repositioning, due a excessive speculation. We can consider Silver as the new indicator of risk-ok and buying real stuff (instead of fiat currencies);
I maintain this big picture view, where there is:
- commodities and risk asset positive
- US growth is slowing and; then I believe that the USD will be under pressure in the coming weeks and months.
Long term outlook changes to USD bearish, JPY bearish and definitely CHF bullish. The actual extreme in the bearish USD sentiment can be a reversal sign, but it does not apply for now.

Driver	Comments	Immanency
On-going global recovery	EZ positive, US less moderate positive, China under control	Yes
Divergence in FED and BCE monetary policy	QE2 is ongoing and the FED will be on hold for this year	Yes
EZ break up	France and Germany still determined to hold on	Not
PIIGS	Greece bailout	Tbd next week
QE2/QE3	QE2 priced in	Mid June
Commodity rise

Long term view	Bias	Comments
USD	Bearish	Bullish after QE2 end, then still bearish
JPY	Bearish	80 is lone in the sand
CHF	Bullish	Safe heaven
EUR	Bullish	Depends on PIIGS immanency

"Technical analysis"
EURUSD failed to break the 1.49 resistance and 1.44 is tested.
USDJPY tested the 80 support but it looks it holds. AUDJPY has 86 as support to the 90 resistance.
EURJPY stopped at 122; mid support at 116 looks broken, a solid base is 114.
The Dollar index rebound at 75 from historical low versus AUD, Gold and CHF.
COT data suggest that is time for a reversal for the dollar. This can take many weeks and should be considered a medium term view. We have to wait for a clear sign of rebound and commercial go again to negative.
COT AUD up 73k (-7k)

COT USD up to -7k (-2k)
COT EUR at 99k (+33k)
COT JPY up at -18k (+18k)
COT CHF up 18k (+0k)
TYN to 3.14% (-0.3%)
JGB at 1.14% (-0.1%)
Bunds at 3.16%. (-0.2%)

German/Greece up to 12.4% (+0.1%)
VIX to 18.3 (+4.5)
Gold/Oil to 15.3 (+2.0)

"Market dynamics”
Long term view:
- EUR going up (EZ and global economic growth and interest rate hikes), and then back to medium levels. All anti dollar will stay strong or increase in the next couple of months; I agree with UBS view, that sees 14.8 at one month view and 1.4 at three month (after QE2 ends)
- USD is definitely going down. Our view that sooner than later US has changed. This will affect the USDJPY long. USD can have a short term pullback due a excessive short squeeze
- CHF, is going exponentially up because of picking up the JPY lost safe heaven status (new all times high versus the USD this week too); if risk on buy CHF, if risk off buy more CHF
- JPY, is going to go down (bad economic slump and lost safe heaven status); US bond bubble is not yet coming and this does not will favor this play; but a non hike policy can slow down the play.
Next week view:
USD is recovering because of the heavy commodities selling and a risk-off sentiment
We have not rush to sell USD at these levels and we will wait for dips at these levels:
EURUSD 1.4450/1.450, AUDUSD 1.045/1.050, USDCHF 0.8950/0.990, USDCAD 0.980/0.985
Spiegel article about Greece restructuring can cause EUR dips. Dips in USDJPY are a buying opportunity; I will watch closely is 80.00 is still the line in the sand, waiting for a BoJ intervention. I will wait to buy other AUDJPY and CADJPY to see if these low levels hold, hoping for a pullback to higher levels (AUDJPY has 90 level to break and USDJPY 85).
Silver (like the canary in a coal mine) and now is telling that we re like at the end of this risk on period.
Key events:
Wednesday: CNY CPI
Thursday: US PPI, Unemployment claims
Friday: German GDP, US CPI and UoM Sentiment

Median grid
EURUSD GRID 1.440 - 1.500, up bias, grid change
USDJPY GRID 80.00-84.00, up bias
AUDJPY GRID 82.00-90.00, up bias
USDCHF GRID 0.8725-0.925, neutral bias

Prices
US at 13577, (+40, Q4),
GOLD to at 1495, (-40, Q4+)
Crude 95.2 (-15.0$)
EURUSD 1.4315 (-0.30, Q1)
USDJPY 80.61 (-0.0, Q1)
AUDJPY 86.21 (-2.4 Q2)
EURJPY 115.5 (-5.0 Q4)

3.  Plan
Determine if current levels are dips opportunity or a rocky fall.

EURUSD
I will buy long dips, like longs at 1.44, if levels hold.
Comment:< >

USDJPY
No trades, wait BoJ
Comment:< >

AUDJPY
I will buy a big dip, like longs at 87.5/7
Comment:< >

EURJPY
I will buy a big dip, like longs at 119.3/5
Comment:< >

USDCHF
No trades planned
Comment:< >

4.  Trades

Positions
USDJPY +2
EURUSD 0
USDCHF 0
AUDJPY +1
EURJPY +1

Daily Briefing 110502

1.  Review.

I said “Short term is to keep USD biased on the downside (FED hold, budget problems, S&P downgrade and the heavy sell). I still maintain bullish view on EURUSD with ECB and FED on divergence, probably we will stay in the new grid for a month or two and I am expecting the 1.44/2 as support ; USD resell area for a dip can be only for some risk off, even if it would affect more CHF. I will buy a dip in the 1.44 area in search of a break of recent highs, looking for a move to 1.5 level.” EUR dipped very short at 1.449 and then rallied to 1.487, where is a short term double top. “Dips in USDJPY are a buying opportunity. I will buy USDJPY if back in the 81 area (FED stance will probably make USDJPY under perform in respect of other JPY crosses).” I entered a dip at 81.5, now at 81.2 level.
“I will buy JPY crosses, like AUDJPY and CADJPY that are now retracing. I will buy dips. AUDJPY has 90 level to break and USDJPY 85.5 that holds. “ Dips are forming, but still higher levels.
“Anyway we can be in a “final rally and sell off” mode. We should carefully watch silver (like the canary in a coal mine) and now is telling that we are like at the end of this risk on period.” Very volatile sessions for silver, but after a huge dip at 44.6 pullback was at highest 49.1, now 47.9
Trades
USDJPY long at 81.5. Closed with profit AUDJPY and EURJOPY

2.  Analysis.

"Fundamental analysis data"
Core Orders 1.3% 1.7% 0.6%
USD GDP 1.8% 1.9% 3.1%
Unemployment Claims 429k
German Consumer Climate 5.7 5.9 5.9
EZ CPI y/y 2.8% 2.7% 2.7%
"Fundamental analysis"
Key event FED speech was QE2 will continue till the end of June, no sooner than later rate hikes and “extended period” words remained. Remembering again PIMCO people is suggesting that US is going back to a lower growth, but not recession. FED confirmed this and policy is on hold.
EURUSD sovereign debt issues are regaining strength, spreads and CDs are at higher values this week too, but EUR is gaining strength..
I maintain this big picture view, where there is:
- an on-going global recovery, EZ positive, US less moderate positive, China under control
- commodities and risk asset positive
- divergence in FED and BCE monetary policy; US growth is slowing and QE2 is ongoing and the FED will be on hold for this year; then I believe that the USD will be under pressure in the coming weeks and months.
Long term outlook changes to USD bearish, JPY bearish and definitely CHF bullish. The actual extreme in the bearish USD sentiment can be a reversal sign, but it does not apply for now..
ECB in a tough position for rate hikes because of surging inflation at 2.8%; if in the next ECB Trichet will use “strong vigilance” we will expect a rate hike in the next June meeting.
China growth is not in discussion; they government will make it work at the right pace.
AUDUSD broke the 1.1 level and as a risk on proxy risk should be on for the next week.
Silver and Gold at highs, because of USD weakness but also for EZ debts, looking for safety. Anyway a gold and silver are still not bought by institutional; a strong fundamental move would need large institutional buying and a strong dollar.
Silver demand is supported by its industrial usage, expecting to rise because of Australia, New Zealand and Japan reconstruction. We can consider Silver as the new indicator of risk-ok and buying real stuff (instead of fiat currencies);
"Technical analysis"
The Dollar index now 3 at to 73.83 and it is at historical low versus AUD, Gold and CHF, close at all times low at 70.70 .
COT data suggest that is time for a reversal for the dollar. This can take many weeks and should be considered a medium term view. We have to wait for a clear sign of rebound and commercial go again to negative.

EURUSD ranged around the 1.43 and the resistance at 1.45, COT data are below. Dollar index tested the76 support . EUR long are very high and increasing. USDJPY at 85. GOLD/Oil ratio stable to 13.6; VIX down at 15.3 (risk on).
COT USD up to -9k (-1k)
COT JPY up at -36k (+14k)
COT EUR at 68k (+4k)
COT AUD up 80k (-11k)

COT CHF up 18k (+4k)
TYN to 3.4% (-0.17%)
JGB at 1.29% (-0.03%)
Bunds at 3.36%. (-0.1%)

German/Greece up to 10.4% (+1.1%)
VIX to 14.7 (-0.5)
Gold/Oil to 13.6 (+0.0)

"Market dynamics”
Long term view:
- EUR going up (EZ and global economic growth and interest rate hikes), and this is going on now. All anti dollar will stay strong or increase in the next couple of months
- USD is definitely going down. Our view that sooner than later US has changed. This will affect the USDJPY long. USD can have a short term pullback due a excessive short squeeze, and G20 could intervene to support the USD to avoid a commodities rally
- CHF, is going exponentially up because of picking up the JPY lost safe heaven status (new all times high versus the USD this week too); if risk on buy CHF, if risk off buy more CHF
- JPY, is going to go down (bad economic slump and lost safe heaven status); US bond bubble is not yet coming and this does not will favor this play; but a non hike policy can slow down the play.
Next week view:
USD is biased on the downside after FCOM meeting a GDP data I still maintain bullish view on EURUSD with ECB and FED on divergence, probably we will stay in the new grid for a month or two and I am expecting the 1.44/45 as support ; I will buy a dip in the 1.44 area in search of a break of recent highs, looking for a move to 1.5 level.
We have not rush to sell USD at these levels and we will wait for dips at these levels:
EURUSD 1.4450/1.450, AUDUSD 1.045/1.050, USDCHF 0.8950/0.990, USDCAD 0.980/0.985
Dips in USDJPY are a buying opportunity. I will buy USDJPY if back in the 81 area (FED stance will probably make USDJPY under perform in respect of other JPY crosses).
JPY crosses failed this week to extend gains: I will buy AUDJPY and CADJPY that are now retracingat these low levels, hoping for a pullback to higher levels (AUDJPY has 90 level to break and USDJPY 85).
This “final rally and sell off” mode can have a rally that could last this June. We should carefully watch silver (like the canary in a coal mine) and now is telling that we are like at the end of this risk on period.
Key events:
Wednesday: USD ADP, ISM
Thursday: ECB rate and press conference
Friday: NFP

Median grid
EURUSD GRID 1.440 - 1.500, up bias €, grid change
USDJPY GRID 80.00-84.00, up bias
AUDJPY GRID 82.00-90.00, up bias
USDCHF GRID 0.8725-0.925, neutral bias

Prices
US at 13577, (+40, Q4),
GOLD to at 1544, (+60, Q4+)
Crude 113.0 (+4.0$)
EURUSD 1.4830 (+0.04, Q4)
USDJPY 81.11 (-0.0, Q1)
AUDJPY 88.81 (+1.0 Q4)
EURJPY 120.5 (-1.0 Q4)

3.  Plan

EURUSD
I will buy long dips, like longs at 1.44.
Comment:< >

USDJPY
No trades
Comment:< >

AUDJPY
I will buy a big dip, like longs at 87.5/7
Comment:< >

AUDJPY
I will buy a big dip, like longs at 119.3/5
Comment:< >

USDCHF
No trades planned
Comment:< >

4.  Trades

Positions
USDJPY +2
EURUSD 0
USDCHF 0
AUDJPY 0
EURJPY 0

Daily Briefing 110502

1.  Review.

I said “Short term is to keep USD biased on the downside (FED hold, budget problems, S&P downgrade and the heavy sell). I still maintain bullish view on EURUSD with ECB and FED on divergence, probably we will stay in the new grid for a month or two and I am expecting the 1.44/2 as support ; USD resell area for a dip can be only for some risk off, even if it would affect more CHF. I will buy a dip in the 1.44 area in search of a break of recent highs, looking for a move to 1.5 level.” EUR dipped very short at 1.449 and then rallied to 1.487, where is a short term double top. “Dips in USDJPY are a buying opportunity. I will buy USDJPY if back in the 81 area (FED stance will probably make USDJPY under perform in respect of other JPY crosses).” I entered a dip at 81.5, now at 81.2 level.
“I will buy JPY crosses, like AUDJPY and CADJPY that are now retracing. I will buy dips. AUDJPY has 90 level to break and USDJPY 85.5 that holds. “ Dips are forming, but still higher levels.
“Anyway we can be in a “final rally and sell off” mode. We should carefully watch silver (like the canary in a coal mine) and now is telling that we are like at the end of this risk on period.” Very volatile sessions for silver, but after a huge dip at 44.6 pullback was at highest 49.1, now 47.9
Trades
USDJPY long at 81.5. Closed with profit AUDJPY and EURJOPY

2.  Analysis.

"Fundamental analysis data"
Core Orders 1.3% 1.7% 0.6%
USD GDP 1.8% 1.9% 3.1%
Unemployment Claims 429k
German Consumer Climate 5.7 5.9 5.9
EZ CPI y/y 2.8% 2.7% 2.7%
"Fundamental analysis"
Key event FED speech was QE2 will continue till the end of June, no sooner than later rate hikes and “extended period” words remained. Remembering again PIMCO people is suggesting that US is going back to a lower growth, but not recession. FED confirmed this and policy is on hold.
EURUSD sovereign debt issues are regaining strength, spreads and CDs are at higher values this week too, but EUR is gaining strength..
I maintain this big picture view, where there is:
- an on-going global recovery, EZ positive, US less moderate positive, China under control
- commodities and risk asset positive
- divergence in FED and BCE monetary policy; US growth is slowing and QE2 is ongoing and the FED will be on hold for this year; then I believe that the USD will be under pressure in the coming weeks and months.
Long term outlook changes to USD bearish, JPY bearish and definitely CHF bullish. The actual extreme in the bearish USD sentiment can be a reversal sign, but it does not apply for now..
ECB in a tough position for rate hikes because of surging inflation at 2.8%; if in the next ECB Trichet will use “strong vigilance” we will expect a rate hike in the next June meeting.
China growth is not in discussion; they government will make it work at the right pace.
AUDUSD broke the 1.1 level and as a risk on proxy risk should be on for the next week.
Silver and Gold at highs, because of USD weakness but also for EZ debts, looking for safety. Anyway a gold and silver are still not bought by institutional; a strong fundamental move would need large institutional buying and a strong dollar.
Silver demand is supported by its industrial usage, expecting to rise because of Australia, New Zealand and Japan reconstruction. We can consider Silver as the new indicator of risk-ok and buying real stuff (instead of fiat currencies);
"Technical analysis"
The Dollar index now 3 at to 73.83 and it is at historical low versus AUD, Gold and CHF, close at all times low at 70.70 .
COT data suggest that is time for a reversal for the dollar. This can take many weeks and should be considered a medium term view. We have to wait for a clear sign of rebound and commercial go again to negative.

EURUSD ranged around the 1.43 and the resistance at 1.45, COT data are below. Dollar index tested the76 support . EUR long are very high and increasing. USDJPY at 85. GOLD/Oil ratio stable to 13.6; VIX down at 15.3 (risk on).
COT USD up to -9k (-1k)
COT JPY up at -36k (+14k)
COT EUR at 68k (+4k)
COT AUD up 80k (-11k)

COT CHF up 18k (+4k)
TYN to 3.4% (-0.17%)
JGB at 1.29% (-0.03%)
Bunds at 3.36%. (-0.1%)

German/Greece up to 10.4% (+1.1%)
VIX to 14.7 (-0.5)
Gold/Oil to 13.6 (+0.0)

"Market dynamics”
Long term view:
- EUR going up (EZ and global economic growth and interest rate hikes), and this is going on now. All anti dollar will stay strong or increase in the next couple of months
- USD is definitely going down. Our view that sooner than later US has changed. This will affect the USDJPY long. USD can have a short term pullback due a excessive short squeeze, and G20 could intervene to support the USD to avoid a commodities rally
- CHF, is going exponentially up because of picking up the JPY lost safe heaven status (new all times high versus the USD this week too); if risk on buy CHF, if risk off buy more CHF
- JPY, is going to go down (bad economic slump and lost safe heaven status); US bond bubble is not yet coming and this does not will favor this play; but a non hike policy can slow down the play.
Next week view:
USD is biased on the downside after FCOM meeting a GDP data I still maintain bullish view on EURUSD with ECB and FED on divergence, probably we will stay in the new grid for a month or two and I am expecting the 1.44/45 as support ; I will buy a dip in the 1.44 area in search of a break of recent highs, looking for a move to 1.5 level.
We have not rush to sell USD at these levels and we will wait for dips at these levels:
EURUSD 1.4450/1.450, AUDUSD 1.045/1.050, USDCHF 0.8950/0.990, USDCAD 0.980/0.985
Dips in USDJPY are a buying opportunity. I will buy USDJPY if back in the 81 area (FED stance will probably make USDJPY under perform in respect of other JPY crosses).
JPY crosses failed this week to extend gains: I will buy AUDJPY and CADJPY that are now retracingat these low levels, hoping for a pullback to higher levels (AUDJPY has 90 level to break and USDJPY 85).
This “final rally and sell off” mode can have a rally that could last this June. We should carefully watch silver (like the canary in a coal mine) and now is telling that we are like at the end of this risk on period.
Key events:
Wednesday: USD ADP, ISM
Thursday: ECB rate and press conference
Friday: NFP

Median grid
EURUSD GRID 1.440 - 1.500, up bias €, grid change
USDJPY GRID 80.00-84.00, up bias
AUDJPY GRID 82.00-90.00, up bias
USDCHF GRID 0.8725-0.925, neutral bias

Prices
US at 13577, (+40, Q4),
GOLD to at 1544, (+60, Q4+)
Crude 113.0 (+4.0$)
EURUSD 1.4830 (+0.04, Q4)
USDJPY 81.11 (-0.0, Q1)
AUDJPY 88.81 (+1.0 Q4)
EURJPY 120.5 (-1.0 Q4)

3.  Plan

EURUSD
I will buy long dips, like longs at 1.44.
Comment:< >

USDJPY
No trades
Comment:< >

AUDJPY
I will buy a big dip, like longs at 87.5/7
Comment:< >

AUDJPY
I will buy a big dip, like longs at 119.3/5
Comment:< >

USDCHF
No trades planned
Comment:< >

4.  Trades

Positions
USDJPY +2
EURUSD 0
USDCHF 0
AUDJPY 0
EURJPY 0

Daily Briefing 110404

1.  Review.

I said “I still maintain bullish view on EURUSD. Probably we adjust the grid with a 1.40 floor to go ahead to 1.44/45 level. Probably we will stay in the new grid for a month or two and I am expecting the 1.4 as support and a USD resell area for a dip. Any EZ long term dips are still going to be bought.” 1.4 acted as support, anyway EURUSD failed to break the 1.42 resistance. “ Next ECB meeting in April and rate hike is fully priced in and there are risk for the down side.” ECB Rate hikes are fully priced and it would need some news to add more fuel to break the 1.42 level. “US Friday employment data are expected positive and then supporting risk-on environment.” It was and moved risk currencies versus JPY. “US higher rates should support a higher USDJPY. Dips in USDJPY are a buying opportunity. I will buy USDJPY if back in the 79 area.” It didn’t dipped and I missed the 82 to 84 move. “I see JPY cross strength emerge in the weeks ahead, like AUDJPY and CADJPY (end of month activity could result in choppy USD activity, so better stay focused on JPY crosses). I will look for breaks of current resistances.” Resistances where clearly broken and I will look to buy next dip. “Risk aversion for Middle East events should be considered.” Not really this week.
Trades
Closed EURUSD short at 1.36; I missed the USDJPY boat. Missed again the 1.4050 dip in EURUSD.

2.  Analysis.

"Fundamental analysis data"
EZ CPI higher (2.6% 2.4% 2.4%)
EZ Unemployment 9.9% 9.9% 10.0% (revised up)
US Unemployment 8.8% 8.9% 8.9%
US NFP better than expected 216K 191K 194K (whisper number 205K)
ISM Index at historical highs 61.2 61.1 61.4
CNY PMI supporting global growth (53.4 54.6 52.2)

"Fundamental analysis"
Lot of hawkish statements from the FED that: economy is strong enough, inflation is threatening enough and accommodation measures should be removed. QE will be completed in schedule and it is soon to consider tighten measures. Investors maintain a risk on view based on that the recovery is on-going . Stock (US and Japan) raised again, as Commodities and TYN stable as last week decrease, showing a reduced safe heaven demand (and suggesting that a QE3 is not on the table).
I maintain last week a big picture view, where there is:
- an on-going global recovery
- commodities and risk asset positive
- divergence in FED and BCE monetary policy; QE3 is not on the table, but the FED will be on hold for this year;
Long term outlook remains USD bullish, JPY and but CHF bearish is under question.
China growth is not in discussion; they government will make it work at the right pace.
"Technical analysis"
The Dollar index going ahead to the November low 75.3 at to 75.76. EURUSD after breaking the 1.40 resistance, stopped at the next resistance at 1.425, October high and is 1.423. COT data are below. Dollar index hold at 76 support . EUR long are very high and increasing. USDJPY had a huge week from 81 to 84. GOLD/Oil ratio declined to 13.5; VIX is 17.4 after 31 highs.
COT USD up to -13.9k (+1k)
COT JPY up at +7k (-28k)
COT EUR at 56k (+8k)
COT AUD up 85k (+34k)

COT CHF up 18k (-3k)
TYN to 3.44% (+0.01%)
JGB at 1.28% (+0.06%)
Bunds at 3.37%. (+0.1%)

German/Greece up to9.3% (+0.1%)
VIX to 17.4 (-0.6)
Gold/Oil to 13.3 (-0.2)

"Market dynamics”
Long term view:
- EUR going up (EZ and global economic growth and interest rate hikes), and this is going on now.
- USD going UP (US and global economic growth and future interest rate hikes), and this is going to happen as it is clear that there not QE3, maybe in a couple of months.
- CHF, is going exponentially up because of picking up the JPY lost safe heaven status
- JPY, is going to go down (bad economic slump and lost safe heaven status)
Next week view:
Short term is to keep USD biased on the downside, because of FED hold, despite the hawkish comments.
I still maintain bullish view on EURUSD. Probably we adjust the grid with a 1.40 floor to go ahead to 1.44/45 level. Probably we will stay in the new grid for a month or two and I am expecting the 1.4 as support and a USD resell area for a dip, based on the “FED is changing its rate stance” theme. Any EZ long term dips are still going to be bought. Next ECB meeting in April and rate hike is fully priced in and there are risk for the down side. Selling highs could be an opportunity after hawkish FED comments, anticipating the following dip. Thursday afternoon there will be Trichet comments, that will be decisive for further gains.
US Friday employment data ware expected positive and then supporting risk-on environment.
US higher rates should support a higher USDJPY. Dips in USDJPY are a buying opportunity. I will buy USDJPY if back in the 81 area.
I JPY crosses, like AUDJPY and CADJPY are a bit overshoot. There were breaks of current resistances levels. I will buy dips.

Median grid
EURUSD GRID 1.380 - 1.440, up bias
USDJPY GRID 80.00-84.00, up bias
AUDJPY GRID 78.00-86.00, up bias
USDCHF GRID 0.8725-0.925, neutral bias

Prices
US at 1327, (+60, Q4),
GOLD to at 1428, (+1, Q4+)
Crude 108.4 (+3.0$)
EURUSD 1.4234 (+0.15, Q3)
USDJPY 84.05 (+2.7, Q4)
AUDJPY 87.28 (+3.5 Q4+)

3.  Plan

EURUSD
I will buy long dips, as long at 1.4050 or sell at high after FED comments.
Comment:< >

USDJPY
I will buy a deep dip, like 82.10
Comment:< >

AUDJPY
I will buy a deep dip, like 83.30
Comment:< >

USDCHF
Same as last week; resistance at 0.93 holds. If yes, short at 0.912
Comment:< >

4.  Trades
4.1 open trades, their type & their value:
Leverage

Aggregate position size expressed as a gearing ratio (Ex = 3:1)

Total positions per currency:
USDJPY 0
EURUSD 0
USDCHF 0
AUDJPY 0
Position
USDJPY 0
EURUSD 0
USDCHF 0
AUDJPY 0

4.3  Effect of planned trades

Account summary:
Saxo live account
Starting capital: 1000
Line in the sand level:  7500

1.  Account balance (Settled trades) and growth as a percentage.  (9828=-1.7%)
2.  Account equity (Including open positions) .  (9828=-1.7%)
3.  Account equity if planned trades go wrong: 0
4.  Pip distance to line in the sand level. 

Daily Briefing 110328

1.  Review.

I said “EUR going up and USD going UP. I still maintain bullish view on EURUSD. Probably we adjust the grid with a 1.40 floor to go ahead to 1.44/45 level.” Yes, we adjusted the grid. “ Probably we will stay in the new grid for a month or two and I am expecting the 1.4 as support and a USD resell area for a dip. Any EZ long term dips are still going to be bought”. The Portugal downgrade is a 1.4080 buying opportunity. “Dips in USDJPY are a buying opportunity. I will buy USDJPY if back in the 79 area”. It did not all the week long and then I bought at 80.90. “Risk aversion for Middle East events should be considered.” Still protest in Yemen and not a clear Libya resolution.
Trades
I missed the EURUSD dip at 1.4050, again. Bought JPY @ 80.90.

2.  Analysis.

"Fundamental analysis data"
USD New home sales down 250K 291K 301K
German Ifo slightly down (111 110 111)
EZ PMI positive
US Unemployment down 382K 338K 387K
"Fundamental analysis"
Despite events investors maintained a risk on view based on that the recovery is on-going . Stock (US and Japan) raised, as Commodities and TYN fell, showing a reduced safe heaven demand (and suggesting that a QE3 is not on the table).
I maintain last week a big picture view, where there is:
- an on-going global recovery
- commodities and risk asset positive
- divergence in FED and BCE monetary policy, even if for short time because QE3 could be not on the table
Risk off events in Libya and MENA could rise oil prices and commodities.
Long term outlook remains USD bullish, JPY and but CHF bearish is under question.
China growth is not in discussion; they government will make it work at the right pace.
Portugal crisis did not harmed too much EUR strength, because it appears known and compartmentalized.
"Technical analysis"
The Dollar index going ahead to the November low 75.3 at to 75.76
EURUSD after breaking the 1.40 resistance, stopped at the next resistance at 1.42, October high and is back to 1.408. COT data are below. Dollar index hold at 76 support . EUR long are very high and increasing. USDJPY had a flat week BOJ intervention at 81. GOLD/Oil ratio declined to 13.5; VIX is 18 after 31 highs.
COT USD up to -14k (+1k)
COT JPY up at +35k (+5k)
COT EUR at 48k (+3k)
COT AUD up 51k (+4k)
COT CHF up 21k (-7k)
TYN to 3.43% (+0.18%)
JGB at 1.22% (+0.01%)
Bunds at 3.27%. (+0.09%)
German/Greece up to9.2% (+0.1%)
VIX to 18 (-6)
Gold/Oil to 13.5 (-0.4)

"Market dynamics”
Long term view:
- EUR going up (EZ and global economic growth and interest rate hikes), and this is going on now.
- USD going UP (US and global economic growth and interest rate hikes), and this is going to happen as it is clear that there not QE3, maybe in a couple of months.
- CHF, is going exponentially up because of picking up the JPY lost safe heaven status
- JPY, is going to go down (bad economic slump and lost safe heaven status)
I still maintain bullish view on EURUSD. Probably we adjust the grid with a 1.40 floor to go ahead to 1.44/45 level. Probably we will stay in the new grid for a month or two and I am expecting the 1.4 as support and a USD resell area for a dip. Any EZ long term dips are still going to be bought. Next ECB meeting in April and rate hike is fully priced in and there are risk for the down side.
US Friday employment data are expected positive and then supporting risk-on environment.
US higher rates should support a higher USDJPY. Dips in USDJPY are a buying opportunity. I will buy USDJPY if back in the 79 area.
I see JPY cross strength emerge in the weeks ahead, like AUDJPY and CADJPY (end of month activity could result in choppy USD activity, so better stay focused on JPY crosses). I will look for breaks of current resistances.
Risk aversion for Middle East events should be considered.

Median grid
EURUSD GRID 1.380 - 1.440, up bias
USDJPY GRID 80.00-84.00, up bias
AUDJPY GRID 78.00-86.00, up bias
USDCHF GRID 0.8725-0.925, neutral bias

Prices
US at 1274, (-30, Q4),
GOLD to at 1429, (+10, Q4+)
Crude 105.4 (+4.0$)
EURUSD 1.4081 (-0.1, Q3)
USDJPY 81.33 (+0.5, Q2)
AUDJPY 83.44 (+3.5 Q3)

3.  Plan

EURUSD
Long at 1.4080
Comment:< >

USDJPY
Already enough longs
Comment:< >

AUDJPY
Long on a dip at 82.7
Comment:< >

USDCHF
See if resistance at 0.93 holds. If yes, short at 0.912
Comment:< >

4.  Trades
4.1 open trades, their type & their value:
12 Open17-gen-11 EURUSD S 1.3270 1.3420 Q2 0.2 B&B 1.4081 -811.0000 -57.6000
3 Open 18-feb-11 EURUSD S 1.3624 1.3774 Q2 1 B&B 1.4081 -456.0000 -162.0000
1 Open 10-mar-11 USDCHF L 0.9321 0.9171 Q2 1 B&B 0.9195 -126.0000 -63.5000
2 Open 10-mar-11 USDCHF S 0.8979 0.9129 Q1 1 Hedge 1 Open 0.9195 -216.0000 -108.0000
2 Open 24-mar-11 USDJPY L 81.0100 80.0100 Q2 1 B&B 81.33 32.0000 15.43
Leverage

Aggregate position size expressed as a gearing ratio (Ex = 3:1)

Total positions per currency:
USDJPY +1
EURUSD -2
USDCHF +1, -1
AUDJPY 0
Position
USDJPY 15
EURUSD -57, -162
USDCHF -126, -63
AUDJPY 0

4.3  Effect of planned trades

Account summary:
Saxo live account
Starting capital: 1000
Line in the sand level:  7500

1.  Account balance (Settled trades) and growth as a percentage.  (9647=-3.96%)
2.  Account equity (Including open positions) .  (9855= -1.4%)
3.  Account equity if planned trades go wrong: 1011
4.  Pip distance to line in the sand level.  2151, with gear (2) 1075

Daily Briefing 110321

1.  Review.

I said “Probably stay in the sideline watching positions how evolve. EUR going up and USD going UP. I still maintain bullish view on EURUSD till 1.40/1, probably we will stay in the current grid for a month or two and I am not expecting a 1.4 imminent breakout at this moment, but there is anyway a potential upside to 1.425, because the 1.38 area holds”. Again, I did not act as I planned. Euro is 1.418 and I did not added any long on the 1.388 dip. “ Probably we will have a dip on ESM expectation for a couple of weeks; I should look to marker reaction after EU agreement and see bond spread for sovereign debt. It looks market is not focused now. Any EZ long term dips are still going to be bought.” That’s true, but again, I did not. I have to solve these psychological problems …”I will buy USDJPY if back in the 81 area, at 81.66, if the 81 level hold.” What a 77.03 dip! I did not profit from BOJ intervention, when it was quite clear to try a JPY short at 78.7
Risk aversion for Middle East events should be considered.”
Trades
Entered a long USDJPY @ 77.98 and AUDJPY @ 76.64. I missed the EURUSD dip, again.
Closed JPY shorts. Edged USDCHF

2.  Analysis.

"Fundamental analysis data"
German ZEW down (14.1% 16.2% 15.7%)
US Building permits down (0.52M 0.58M 0.56M)
US PPI up (1.6% 0.7% 0.8%)

US CPI up m/m (0.5% 0.5% 0.4%)
Phil Fed Man. Index (43 29 35)
"Fundamental analysis"
Main event was BOJ and G7 intervention. Further intervenes are foreseen to defend the 80 level. JPY will probably weaken in the coming months due a slow growth, BOJ easing and government borrowing.
After this furious week, I have to maintain a big picture view, where there is:
- an on-going global recovery
- commodities and risk asset positive
- divergence in FED (Q3) and BCE monetary policy
Risk off events in Libya and MENA could rise oil prices and commodities.
Long term outlook remains USD bullish, JPY and CHF bearish.
China growth is not in discussion; they government will make it work at the right pace.
EU meeting reached a deal on competitiveness pact. Some question from German government about the bailout fund. I take the side it will be solved. Peripheral spread are still high. Only a falter in the German economy would change this. There is a huge dips buying and this is EUR bullish.
EUR is now beneficiary for risk off, with JPY and CHF. Probably a temporary set, but it is lasting since weeks.
Issue is if speculator will focus on EUR now that BOJ is defending JPY crosses.
"Technical analysis"
The Dollar index going ahead to the November low 75.3 at to 75.76
EURUSD broke the 1.40 resistance. Next resistance one is 1.42, October high. COT data are below. EUR long are very high and increasing. USDJPY 80.6, see comment on BOJ intervention. COT had a big reversal versus JPY long. GOLD/Oil ratio declined to 13.7; VIX is 24 after 31 highs.
COT USD up to -15k (-9k)
COT JPY up at +30k (+15k)
COT EUR at 45k (-12k)
COT AUD up 47k (-25k)
TYN to 3.26% (-0.15%)
JGB at 1.21% (-0.04%)
Bunds at 3.18%. (-0.03%)

German/Greece up to9.1% (-0.6%)
VIX to 24.1 (+4)
Gold/Oil to 14.1 (+0.4)

"Market dynamics”
EUR going up and USD going UP. I still maintain bullish view on EURUSD. Probably we adjust the grid with a 1.40 floor to go ahead to 1.44/45 level. Probably we will stay in the new grid for a month or two and I am expecting the 1.4 as support and a USD resell area for a dip. Any EZ long term dips are still going to be bought. Dips in USDJPY are a buying opportunity. I will buy USDJPY if back in the 79 area.
Risk aversion for Middle East events should be considered.

Median grid
EURUSD GRID 1.340 - 1.400
USDJPY GRID 80.00-84.00, up bias
AUDJPY GRID 73.00-81.00, up bias
USDCHF GRID 0.925-0.975, up bias

Prices
US at 1274, (-30, Q4),
GOLD to at 1419, (+2, Q4+)
Crude 101.4 (+1.0$)
EURUSD 1.4181 (+0.18, Q4+)
USDJPY 80.59 (-1.5, Q2)
AUDJPY 80.23 (-3.5 Q4)

3.  Plan

EURUSD
Long on a huge dip
Comment:< >

USDJPY
Long at 80.17
Comment:< >

AUDJPY
Comment:< >

USDCHF
Comment:< >

4.  Trades
4.1 open trades, their type & their value:
12 Open17-gen-11 EURUSD S 1.3270 1.3420 Q2 0.2 B&B 1.4181 -911.0000 -64.6000

3 Open 18-feb-11 EURUSD S 1.3624 1.3774 Q2 1 B&B 1.4181 -556.0000 -196.0000
1 Open 10-mar-11 USDCHF L 0.9321 0.9171 Q2 1 B&B 0.9017 -25.0000 -134.5000
Leverage

Aggregate position size expressed as a gearing ratio (Ex = 3:1)

Total positions per currency:
USDJPY 0
EURUSD -2
USDCHF +1, -1
AUDJPY 0
Position
USDJPY -22, -14
EURUSD -45, -99
USDCHF -10
AUDJPY 0

4.3  Effect of planned trades

Account summary:
Saxo live account
Starting capital: 1000
Line in the sand level:  7500

1.  Account balance (Settled trades) and growth as a percentage.  (9802=-1.96%)
2.  Account equity (Including open positions) .  (9542= -4.5%)
3.  Account equity if planned trades go wrong: 1011
4.  Pip distance to line in the sand level.  2151, with gear (2) 1075

Stefano Piovesan Daily Briefing 110315

1.  Review.

I said “EUR going up and USD going UP. I maintain bullish view on EURUSD till 1.40/1, probably we will stay in the current grid for a month or two and I am not expecting a 1.4 imminent breakout at this moment, but there is anyway a potential upside to 1.425 if 1.38 area holds. Probably we will have a dip on ESM expectation for a couple of weeks: market will see sovereign debt as a threat if a failure to have a credible mechanism, causing pressure for EUR This will allow to reposition shorts and ad a long positions. Any EZ long term dips are going to be bought.” EURUSD dipped until Friday to 1.378 and rallied back on risk off earth quack event. EU FM meeting was overshadowed by events. “I will buy USDJPY if back in the 81 area, at 81.66.” I should reconsider, because last earth quack caused a massive JPY rally. “I will buy USDCHF at 0.931, breaking the 0.93 resistance. Risk aversion for Middle East events should be considered.” US data were not too much supportive for this action. No riots in Arabia for now.
Trades
Entered a long USDCHF 0.931. I missed the EURUSD dip.

2.  Analysis.

"Fundamental analysis data"
German factory order down 2.9% 2.6% -3.6%
German Production m/m up 1.8% 1.8% -0.6%
US Unemployment claims larger than expected (397K 375K 371K)

CYN trade balance unexpected but negative (-7.3B 4.9B 6.5B)
US retail sales up (192K 191K 63K)
UoM down (68.2 77.0 77.5)
"Fundamental analysis"
Speculation on risk off events in Libya and oil prices beneficed mainly JPY and CHF. USD stayed in the sidelines but at the end of the wee yields felled for safe heaven buying.
Long term outlook remains USD bullish, JPY and CHF bearish.
EU meeting reached a deal on competitiveness pact, probably some restructuring and default ahead. Rates must adapt to inflationary pressure and need action for aid mechanism. EU authorized 440 billion spending EU peripheral spread to historical highs. Medium and long term outlook for EUR is bullish too, probably with large dips. Only a falter in the German economy would change this. There is a huge dips buying and this is EUR bullish.
EUR is now beneficiary for risk off, with JPY and CHF. Probably a temporary set.
Petrodollars are buying EUR (not USD) while selling CHF, too strong, causing huge flows for EUR.
AUD fell after CNY data.
"Technical analysis"
The Dollar index recovered from low since November to 77.6
EURUSD held at 1.38, falling 1.40 high. Next resistance one is 1.42. COT data are below. EUR long are very high and increasing. USDJPY 81.9, in the support 82 from 83, but earth quack effect are still developing. COT had a big reversal. GOLD/Oil ratio declined to 13.7; VIX is 19 after 23 highs.
COT USD up to -6k (+1k)
COT JPY up at 16k (-25k)
COT EUR at 62k (+11k)
COT AUD up 73k (+2k)
TYN to 3.4% (-0.1%)
JGB at 1.25% (-0.05%)
Bunds at 3.21%. (-0.5%)

German/Greece up to9.6% (+0.7%)
VIX to 20.1 (+1)
Gold/Oil to 14.1 (+0.4)

"Market dynamics”
Probably stay in the sideline watching positions how evolve.
EUR going up and USD going UP. I still maintain bullish view on EURUSD till 1.40/1, probably we will stay in the current grid for a month or two and I am not expecting a 1.4 imminent breakout at this moment, but there is anyway a potential upside to 1.425, because the 1.38 area holds. Probably we will have a dip on ESM expectation for a couple of weeks; I should look to marker reaction after EU agreement and see bond spread for sovereign debt. It looks market is not focused now. Any EZ long term dips are still going to be bought.
I will buy USDJPY if back in the 81 area, at 81.66, if the 81 level hold.
Risk aversion for Middle East events should be considered.

Median grid
EURUSD GRID 1.340 - 1.400
USDJPY GRID 80.00-84.00, up bias
AUDJPY GRID 73.00-81.00, up bias
USDCHF GRID 0.925-0.975, up bias

Prices
US at 1306, (-20, Q4),
GOLD to at 1417, (-13, Q4+)
Crude 100.4 (-4.0$)
EURUSD 1.3902 (-0.08, Q2)
USDJPY 81.85 (-0.5, Q2)
AUDJPY 82.98 (-0.5 Q4+)

3.  Plan

EURUSD
Long on a huge dip
Comment:< >

USDJPY
Long at 81.66
Comment:< >

AUDJPY
Comment:< >

USDCHF
Long at 0.931
Comment:< >

4.  Trades
4.1 open trades, their type & their value:
1 Open 05-set-10 USDJPY L 84.2600 83.2600 Q4 0.2 B&B 82.3 -216.0000 -22.3000
3 Open 13-dic-10 USDJPY L 83.4800 83.2600 Q4 0.2 B&B 82.3 -138.0000 -14.5000
12 Open17-gen-11 EURUSD S 1.3270 1.3420 Q2 0.2 B&B 1.3902 -613.0000 -45.6000

3 Open 18-feb-11 EURUSD S 1.3624 1.3774 Q2 1 B&B 1.3986 -278.0000 -99.0000
1 Open 10-mar-11 USDCHF L 0.9321 0.9171 Q2 1 B&B 0.9296 -25.0000 -12.5000
Leverage

Aggregate position size expressed as a gearing ratio (Ex = 3:1)

Total positions per currency:
USDJPY +2
EURUSD -2
USDCHF +1
AUDJPY 0
Position
USDJPY -22, -14
EURUSD -45, -99
USDCHF -10
AUDJPY 0

4.3  Effect of planned trades

Account summary:
Saxo live account
Starting capital: 1000
Line in the sand level:  7500

1.  Account balance (Settled trades) and growth as a percentage.  (9832=-1.6%)
2.  Account equity (Including open positions) .  (9651= -3.6%)
3.  Account equity if planned trades go wrong: 1011
4.  Pip distance to line in the sand level.  2151, with gear (2) 1075