DB 100315

1.  Review.

Expectations about a “Risk on” return were right. JPY depreciated, AUD gained and EUR gained too. I failed to stick my plans:

- I should have hedged (or closed) at least one EURUSD short and I did not; I was expecting a smaller range instead it looks like range is extending above 1.38.

- I forgot to buy AUDJP on a dip

Trades

EURUSD are deep red. I added another short too early the 11/03. I added another log to USDJPY.

I was able to exit with a small profit from a gold shot, previously deep red.

2.  Analysis.

"Fundamental analysis"

Greece risk is completely done for now clarified position and this could boots long positions on EURUSD. Macro data were good for US and China, giving boost to risk on sentiment. Even if with conflicting indicators, change in risk sentiment is now favoring risk trades , always with cautions, causing prices to remaining still in a price range. The fact that commodities did not appreciated with of risk currencies appreciation would suggest still some cautions (excessive long positions restraints to the upside).

"Technical analysis"

JPY is stuck the middle of the grid (90), after a quick test of the 91 level. UBS 3 month forecast is 95, EURUSD tested almost the 1.38 level, without breaking. Price are still in the 1.35-1.38 range. UBS 3 month forecast is still bearish 1.30, and the upside looks limited. COT report shows a all time low in short positions (-74k), while position in USD are stalling at high levels (36), suggesting a confirm for ranging.

"Market dynamics"

Interesting position of the prime minister of Japan is that JPY rates should be decided by the market, but action should be taken if the JPY strength does not reflect domestic economic strength; this should avoid further JPY gains. BoJ Wednesday meeting should announce a easing policy, with injection of liquidity. USDJPY is expecting to get 92 level. I am looking to buy the expectations and sell the fact scenario,

I look for positive data to confirm a consolidation of the risk on sentiment; ZEW is expected lowering and US data confirming growth.

Median grid

EURUSD GRID 1.3500 - 1.4100, short bias

USDJPY GRID 88.00-92.00, long bias

AUDJPY GRID 78.00-86.00, long bias

Basically a risk-on bias

Prices

US up at 1151, (Q4+)

GOLD at 1101 (Q3)

Crude 81.0

EURUSD 1.3768 (Q4)

USDJPY 90.56, (Q3)

3.  Plan

EURUSD

I will stay with current 2 long. If price exceeds 1.38 I will hedge one short. Otherwise I will add another short at 1.39 if reached after a pullback

Comment:<>

USDJPY

I think I can stay with long opened this level without fear as long my leverage is fine. I will leave the long 91.96 opened and add another long on a small dip (90.16), even if as exception to my grid entry rules.

Comment:<>

AUDJPY

I will do B&B. I will enter long on the next yob level (82.32) as pullback 1:1, I will stop out on a level down (-100 pips).

Comment:<>

EURNOK

Leave for medium term both shorts.

Comment:<>

4.  Trades

4.1 open trades, their type & their value:

9 Open 26-feb-10 EURUSD S 1.3537 Q1 1:1 B&B 1.3770 -233.0000

10 Open 11-mar-10 EURUSD S .3650 Q2 1:1 B&B 1.3770 -120.0000

6 Open 22-feb-10 USDJPY L 91.6900 Q4 1:1 B&B 90.5600 -113.0000

8 Open 08-mar-10 USDJPY L 90.2800 Q3 1:1 B&B 90.5600 28.0000

4.2 Leverage

aggregate position size expressed as a gearing ratio (Ex = 4:1)

Total positions per currency

USDJPY +2

EURUSD -2

AUDJPY 0

Position

USDJPY +2 (-113, 28)

EURUSD -2 (-233, -113)

AUDJPY 0

4.3  Effect of planned trades

Account summary:

ActivTrades live account

Starting date: 1/1/2010

Starting capital: 1233

Line in the sand level:  750

1.  Account balance (Settled trades) and growth as a percentage.  (1271.4= 1%)

2.  Account equity (Including open positions) .  (1268= 2%)

3.  Account equity if planned trades go wrong

4.  Pip distance to line in the sand level.  1311

DB 1010308

Stefano Piovesan Daily Briefing 100308

1.  Review.

Better than expected USD data boosted “Risk on” return and it was fine for my positioning. JPY unwind stopped as expected. Risk on was more against JPY (lost against USD and AUD) than positive for USD (expect versus JPY)

Trades

My naked positions in the wrong side looks better. Got 110 pips profit with a long USDJPY.

I missed the opportunity of add another long at the 88 level.

2.  Analysis.

"Fundamental analysis"

Greece clarified position and this may edge short term EURUSD. Low inflation (1% y/y) would suggest that ECB rate hike are not expected and the widening interest differential will impact negatively on EURUSD long term (3-6 month). Macro data were good for USD, giving boost to risk on sentiment. Continuously conflicting indicators, some inspiring confidence in the rebound and other opposite, suggest a continuously change in risk sentiment and a short term outlook, causing prices to remaining in a price range, without a clear trend.

"Technical analysis"

JPY losing ground and back to the middle of the grid (90), after a test of the grid low. UBS 3 month forecast is 95, EURUSD tested again the 1.35 level for the fourth time , without breaking. Price are still in the 1.35-1.37 range. UBS 3 month forecast is still bearish 1.30, but there is not a clear low break. COT report shows a small gain (-67k) versus the historical high of short positions in EUR (-71), while position in USD are all time high.

"Market dynamics"

No relevant new are expected this week: the Greece situation looks solved, unless the popular riots get hard. US data are expected to confirm actual positive trend, especially on the job side. I look for a consolidation of the risk on sentiment; probably EURUSD could gain from this <it was true, but I added another short…>

Median grid

EURUSD GRID 1.3500 - 1.4100, short bias

USDJPY GRID 88.00-92.00, long bias

AUDJPY GRID 78.00-86.00, long bias

Basically a risk-on bias

Prices

US up at 1136, (Q4+)

GOLD at 1134 (Q4)

Crude 81.7

EURUSD 1.36 (Q4)

USDJPY 90.29, (Q3)

3.  Plan

EURUSD

Wait risk on assertion. I think it would be safe to square the current short if loss are exceeding 100 pips (1.3729). If risk on continues, I will wait 1.38 level before adding another short position. I expect only versus JPY to gain mostly from this risk on.

Comment:<I added instead a short at 1.3650 and I did not squared the 1.3530 position; both wrong moves and now price is 1.3770>

USDJPY

I think I can stay with long opened this level without fear as long my leverage is fine. The failed 88 test before the NFP give confidence that we are in a fine range: I will leave the long 19.96 opened and add another two long on a small dip (89.67), even if as exception to my grid entry rules.

Comment:<I did not wait the dip but I bought at 90.28>

AUDJPY

I will do B&B. I will enter long on the next yob level (81.32) as pullback 1:1, I will stop out on a level down (-100 pips).

Comment:<I did not (wrongly) enter the dip at 81.25; bad…>

EURNOK

Leave for medium term.

Comment:<I entered with not clear plan and without too much thinking a short at 8.018>

4.  Trades

4.1 open trades, their type & their value:

9 Open 26-feb-10EURUSD S 1.3537 Q1 1:1 B&B 1.3622 -85.0000 -62.1945778

6 Open 22-feb-10 USDJPY L 91.6900 Q4 1:1 B&B 90.29 -140.0000 -128.4911

4.2 Leverage

aggregate position size expressed as a gearing ratio (Ex = 1:1)

Total positions per currency

USDJPY +1

EURUSD -1

AUDJPY 0

Position

USDJPY +1 (-110)

EURUSD -1 (-85)

AUDJPY 0

4.3  Effect of planned trades

Account summary:

ActivTrades live account

Starting date: 1/1/2010

Starting capital: 233+100

Line in the sand level:  7,500

1.  Account balance (Settled trades) and growth as a percentage.  (12777= 1%)

2.  Account equity (Including open positions) .  (1268= 2%)

3.  Account equity if planned trades go wrong

4.  Pip distance to line in the sand level.  1250