DB 100315

1.  Review.

Expectations about a “Risk on” return were right. JPY depreciated, AUD gained and EUR gained too. I failed to stick my plans:

- I should have hedged (or closed) at least one EURUSD short and I did not; I was expecting a smaller range instead it looks like range is extending above 1.38.

- I forgot to buy AUDJP on a dip

Trades

EURUSD are deep red. I added another short too early the 11/03. I added another log to USDJPY.

I was able to exit with a small profit from a gold shot, previously deep red.

2.  Analysis.

"Fundamental analysis"

Greece risk is completely done for now clarified position and this could boots long positions on EURUSD. Macro data were good for US and China, giving boost to risk on sentiment. Even if with conflicting indicators, change in risk sentiment is now favoring risk trades , always with cautions, causing prices to remaining still in a price range. The fact that commodities did not appreciated with of risk currencies appreciation would suggest still some cautions (excessive long positions restraints to the upside).

"Technical analysis"

JPY is stuck the middle of the grid (90), after a quick test of the 91 level. UBS 3 month forecast is 95, EURUSD tested almost the 1.38 level, without breaking. Price are still in the 1.35-1.38 range. UBS 3 month forecast is still bearish 1.30, and the upside looks limited. COT report shows a all time low in short positions (-74k), while position in USD are stalling at high levels (36), suggesting a confirm for ranging.

"Market dynamics"

Interesting position of the prime minister of Japan is that JPY rates should be decided by the market, but action should be taken if the JPY strength does not reflect domestic economic strength; this should avoid further JPY gains. BoJ Wednesday meeting should announce a easing policy, with injection of liquidity. USDJPY is expecting to get 92 level. I am looking to buy the expectations and sell the fact scenario,

I look for positive data to confirm a consolidation of the risk on sentiment; ZEW is expected lowering and US data confirming growth.

Median grid

EURUSD GRID 1.3500 - 1.4100, short bias

USDJPY GRID 88.00-92.00, long bias

AUDJPY GRID 78.00-86.00, long bias

Basically a risk-on bias

Prices

US up at 1151, (Q4+)

GOLD at 1101 (Q3)

Crude 81.0

EURUSD 1.3768 (Q4)

USDJPY 90.56, (Q3)

3.  Plan

EURUSD

I will stay with current 2 long. If price exceeds 1.38 I will hedge one short. Otherwise I will add another short at 1.39 if reached after a pullback

Comment:<>

USDJPY

I think I can stay with long opened this level without fear as long my leverage is fine. I will leave the long 91.96 opened and add another long on a small dip (90.16), even if as exception to my grid entry rules.

Comment:<>

AUDJPY

I will do B&B. I will enter long on the next yob level (82.32) as pullback 1:1, I will stop out on a level down (-100 pips).

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EURNOK

Leave for medium term both shorts.

Comment:<>

4.  Trades

4.1 open trades, their type & their value:

9 Open 26-feb-10 EURUSD S 1.3537 Q1 1:1 B&B 1.3770 -233.0000

10 Open 11-mar-10 EURUSD S .3650 Q2 1:1 B&B 1.3770 -120.0000

6 Open 22-feb-10 USDJPY L 91.6900 Q4 1:1 B&B 90.5600 -113.0000

8 Open 08-mar-10 USDJPY L 90.2800 Q3 1:1 B&B 90.5600 28.0000

4.2 Leverage

aggregate position size expressed as a gearing ratio (Ex = 4:1)

Total positions per currency

USDJPY +2

EURUSD -2

AUDJPY 0

Position

USDJPY +2 (-113, 28)

EURUSD -2 (-233, -113)

AUDJPY 0

4.3  Effect of planned trades

Account summary:

ActivTrades live account

Starting date: 1/1/2010

Starting capital: 1233

Line in the sand level:  750

1.  Account balance (Settled trades) and growth as a percentage.  (1271.4= 1%)

2.  Account equity (Including open positions) .  (1268= 2%)

3.  Account equity if planned trades go wrong

4.  Pip distance to line in the sand level.  1311