Tuesday, April 24, 2012

120424 Range-bound trading in the currency markets could be ending

"Looking back over the last 12 years, there have only been five episodes where a lack of trend across all 42 G-10 crosses has persisted for more than the current period,"

So how do you play this potential shift?

The strategists are bearish on the euro, [EUR=X 1.3196 0.0042 (+0.32%) ] dollar, [.DXY 79.18 -0.19 (-0.25%) ] and the yen, [JPY=X 81.13 -0.03 (-0.04%) ] expecting their year-to-date underperformance to continue. So they suggest selling those against other currencies, like the British pound, [GBP=X 1.6131 0.0007 (+0.04%) ] Canadian dollar, [CAD=X 0.9885 -0.0021 (-0.21%) ] and Swedish krona. [SEK=X 6.7417 -0.0073 (-0.11%) ] In emerging markets, they like the Mexican peso, [MXN=X 13.1579 -0.0128 (-0.1%) ] South Korean won, [KRW=X 1137.15 -4.35 (-0.38%) ] and South African rand. [ZAR=X 7.79 -0.0473 (-0.6%) ]

That means:

  • Short EUR, USD, YEN
  • Long GBP, CAD, SEK

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