Weekly Briefing 120526

1.  Review.

Euro is down 2% this week. Uncertain remains high due to lack of clarity about Eurobond, Greek elections and bank capitalization.
Trades
Edged AUDUSD, USDGBP, short AUDUSD

2.  Analysis.

"Fundamental analysis"
Monday: Nothing
Tuesday: GBP CPI y/y 3.0% 3.1% 3.5%
Wednesday: JPY Overnight Call Rate <0.10% <0.10% <0.10%
Thursday: CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PM 48.7 49.3, EUR German Ifo Business Climate 106.9 109.5 109.9, USD Unemployment Claims 370k 374K 370K
For a big EUR south move you need EU trouble and US economic growth and normality. If you don't have both, no big euro south side and potential for euro upside due to the structural improvements and the long term USD diversification
Economic releases have suggested that the Euro zone may experience negative growth again in Q2 as disappointing May PMI figures out of Germany, France, and the EZ as well as poor German IFO survey readings indicate the potential for contraction.
With the lack of anything from the EU summit and resulting price action it seems like the 1.25 / 1.30 buffer is not going to stop this train.
German 10-year and 30-year bund yields hit record lows as did Netherland’s 10-year bond yields. US 10-year Treasury yields traded near record lows. Spread between EU and US favors US and weights on EURUSD
China's Premier Wen said China would prevent the economy from slowing down rapidly and would be both timely and decisive in adjusting monetary and fiscal policies.

Id	Driver	Comments	Immanency
1	On-going global recovery	Germany is in good economic shape. EZ growth low. US growth uncertain	Yes
2	FED and BCE	FED will be on hold for until 2015;	No
3	EZ break up	EU dynamic is a longer term dynamic of "putting the structures in place”; Greece exit	Yes
4	PIIGS	Greece government and Spain banks in focus	Yes
5	QE3	Not off the table; PIMCO says yes	No
6	Commodity rise	Falling prices are confirming slowdown	No

"Technical analysis"
EURUSD trading at the lowest level in 22-months
USDCHF reaching its highest level in 15-months
Dollar index reaching 20-month highs.
- Hans Rudeke from (these days) Morgan Stanley says 1.15.
- Citigroup says: Greek to leave early 2013. EUR to go to 1.20 and below
- Citi man: What if it is a structured Grexit before 2013? Then we can see somewhat of a rally in EURUSD.

- Asharf EURUSD forecast "1.20 ... "If you want to be academic, then 1.23"

- What about USD strength (too strong). Citi man: There is a good chance that the Fed will do QE if the USD strengthen "too much" on this. BUT, that will not be bad for the USD. So what he says is, well 1.20 OK, parity - completely and absolute out of the question

Median grid
EURUSD GRID 1.2400-1.3000, south bias
USDJPY GRID 76.00-80.00, neutral bias

Currency	Short term view(technical)	Long term view (fundamentals)
USD	Long	Short
JPY	Neutral	Short
AUD	Short	Long
EUR	Short	Long

"Market dynamics”
Considering the sentiment is anti EUR and thus USD positive on "risk off", good US data should further support the USD. Weak US data will probably go unnoticed as long as the focus is stuff like "will the Greek exit be orderly or disorderly".
We would view and countertrend corrections as opportunities to look to establish positions with the outlook for USD strength to continue.
EURUSD: The technicals suggest that a longer term decline is likely, however oscillators indicate that the euro may be oversold which point to a period of consolidation or possible correction. As such we would be hesitant to establish fresh shorts at current levels and would prefer to fade any euro strength.
I think the best approach currently is to look to sell in the upper grid and take profits in the lower grid. Not convinced dip-buying (long EUR) is a good idea before we have some more clarity about the Greek political situation: are the Greek people going to be forced to make a decision between to total extremes during the election, or are they going to simply make a decision as to who the managers of a "known outcome" will be? This is the kind of thing the market is going to trade on. We are going sub 1.25 because instead of some less uncertainty we have more in the next weeks.
Trade the grid with a short bias and expecting some southward adjustment unless the powers that be put a floor under the euro here.
Key events:
Monday: Nothing
Tuesday: USD CB Consumer Confidence 69.6 69.2
Wednesday: EUR Italian 10-y Bond Auction
Thursday: USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 139K 119K, USD Prelim GDP q/q 1.9% 2.2%
Friday: USD Non-Farm Employment Change 152K 115K, USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 54.1 54.8, GBP Manufacturing PMI 49.7 50.5

Prices and Risk on/off view

RORO (30): -1.2 (-1.8)

20120525 Week

Succinct summation of week’s events:

Positives:

1) With all the fears of Spanish and Italian spillover from Greece, both stocks and bonds in each are little changed on week.
2) French feel good with new Pres as consumer confidence rises to best since Nov ’10.
3) German consumer confidence holds at just .2 pts from highest since Mar ’11.
4) April New Home sales total 343k annualized, above expectations and the 2nd best over the past 2 yrs.
5) Apr Existing Home sales a touch above estimates but months supply rises to 6.6 from 6.2.
6) With mortgage rates hitting another new low, refi’s up 5.6% to 14 week high.
7) UoM confidence rises to most since Oct ’07 in May as one yr inflation expectations fall to 3.0%, the lowest since Dec ’10 in response to a 3 month low in gasoline prices.
8) KC region mfr’g rises to 9 from 3.

Negatives:

1)Greek stocks fall another 12%, down 91% from the high in ’07, a greater fall top to bottom than during the US Great Depression.
2) German IFO business confidence falls to 6 month low, mfr’g PMI drops to lowest since June ’09 at 45, French PMI at 44.4.
3) Euro zone mfr’g and services composite index declines to lowest since June ’09.
4) UK Q1 GDP contraction revised even lower.
5) Italian consumer confidence falls to new low.
6) China’s HSBC flash mfr’g index remains below 50 for 7th straight month falling .6 pts, Shanghai index loses at 5 1/2 week low.
7) US Durable Goods fall .6% ex transports and 1.9% at the core vs an expected gain for both.
8) Initial Jobless Claims total 370k, in line but declining trend over past yr has stopped for now.
9) Richmond mfr’g falls to 4 from 14.
10) Notwithstanding new low in mortgage rates, purchase apps fall 3% to 4 week low.
11) Fitch downgrades Japan’s credit rating to A+, not a surprise but Japan continues its path to its European moment.

Weekly Briefing 120519

1.  Review.

Unless something clearly noticeable happens, something like some ECB action or maybe more FED & Central bank swap lines to alleviate potential credit crunch risks we are going to be in a bad situation with regards to Greece noise until the outcome of the election or until valuable polls suggests Greece won't exit
EU markets are at 2012 lows. The US markets not, but they are well below their recent highs.
The interesting thing is that EUR for instance scarcely lost 2% over the last week. Open at 1.2920, means 2% is about 260 pips is 1.2660 = the low. That doesn't compare too bad with AUD and GBP.
The Bundesbank's Dombret said German banks are prepared for any fresh problems in Greece
Trades
Edged AUDUSD, NZDUSD, short USDGBP, AUDUSD

2.  Analysis.

"Fundamental analysis"
For a big EUR south move you need EU trouble and US economic growth and normality. If you don't have both, no big euro south side and potential for euro upside due to the structural improvements and the long term USD diversification
Unless there is something substantially and tragically new it is wholly unlikely that EURUSD will move below the January lows (1.26)

Things are going to stay risk off until the Greeks decide on a unity government
The minutes noted that the recovery would have to falter in order for more stimulus to be warranted. Though our base scenario is for no additional QE, this past week’s data showed a slight deterioration in economic activity (in April, retail sales softened, weekly jobless claims showed no sign of improvement, and the Philadelphia Fed index showed contraction for the first time since Sept. 2011)
GBP: . It expects inflation to under-shoot its 2% target in the next two years, which suggests the Bank will keep the door open to more QE (May 22 . GBP CPI (YoY) 3.1% 3.5%) Last week the pound broke its inverse relationship with Gilt yields. In the past few months it has strengthened as Gilt yields have fallen, leading the pound to be called a “safe haven”

Id	Driver	Comments	Immanency
1	On-going global recovery	Germany is in good economic shape. EZ growth low. US growth uncertain	Yes
2	Divergence in FED and BCE monetary policy	FED will be on hold for until 2015;	No
3	EZ break up	EU dynamic is a longer term dynamic of "putting the structures in place”; Greece exit	Yes
4	PIIGS	Greece government and Spain banks in focus	Yes
5	QE3	Not off the table; PIMCO says yes	Yes
6	Commodity rise	Falling prices are confirming slowdown	Yes

"Technical analysis"
The euro managed to recover slightly at the end of last week after dipping below 1.2650 at one stage. The key support level to watch is 1.2624 – the January low. Below here there isn’t much support before 1.20. Although the situation is grave in the Eurozone, the volatility in the options market is not as high as it was in November. This suggests that the markets may be expecting the politicians and the ECB to step in if things get critical.
Constructive for the dollar as the dollar index is trading above the 80.00 level (81.9).. The rally may be running out of steam for now as negative external factors stemming from the Euro zone haven been largely priced in and as domestic concerns keep the prospect of additional Fed stimulus in sight.

Median grid
EURUSD GRID 1.2400-1.3000, south bias (grid change)
USDJPY GRID 76.00-80.00, neutral bias
AUDJPY GRID 76.00-80.00, down bias (grid change)
USDCHF GRID 0.9250-0.8750, up bias (grid change)

Currency	Short term view(technical)	Long term view (fundamentals)
USD
JPY
CHF
EUR

"Market dynamics”
Considering the sentiment is anti EUR and thus USD positive on "risk off", good US data should further support the USD. Weak US data will probably go unnoticed as long as the focus is stuff like "will the Greek exit be orderly or disorderly".
With expectations of strong action from the BoJ low, the yen is likely to remain firm as traders avoid risky assets . We expect the yen to be range bound.
We think the pound is vulnerable especially against the yen and the Aussie dollar. Weak inflation data could push GBPUSD below 1.6.
We continue to see EURUSD move lower, but we think it will be an incremental decline rather than a prolonged downtrend. 1.26 as strong support.
We lowered our AUDUSD forecasts overnight, taking the 1m down to 1.00 (prev. 1.05) and the 3m to 0.97 (prev. 1.00). The lower currency forecast profile reflects downgraded UBS China growth forecasts as well as our anticipation that risk aversion is likely rise further on the back of continued political paralysis in Greece.
Key events:
Monday: Nothing
Tuesday: GBP CPI y/y 3.1% 3.5%
Wednesday: JPY Overnight Call Rate <0.10% <0.10%
Thursday: CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PM, EUR German Ifo Business Climate 109.5 109.9, USD Unemployment Claims 374K 370K
Friday:

Prices and Risk on/off view

Date	CRB	WTI Oil	Copper	Gold	Silver	SP500	Tnote	Bunds	VIX
13/05/2012	291	96.1	364	1584	28.9	1353	1.83	1.51	19.9
20/05/2012	290	91.4	346	1591	28.7	1295	1.72	1.42	25.1
Difference	-0.34%	-4.89%	-4.95%	0.44%	-0.69%	-4.29%	-6.01%	-5.96%	26.13%

Date	Dollar Index	AUDUSD	USDCHF	USDJPY	EURUSD	AUDJPY	Weekly Risk on/off
06/05/2012	80.2	1.003	0.93	79.92	1.292	80.1	-5.64
13/05/2012	81.3	0.98	0.94	79	1.277	77.6	-12.17
Difference	1.37%	-2.29%	1.08%	-1.15%	-1.16%	-3.12%	-115.71%

RORO (30): -1.8

3.  Plan

4.  Trades

Positions
USDJPY +2
EURUSD -1
USDCHF 0
AUDJPY +0
EURJPY 0
CADJPY 0
EURAUD +1

4.1 open trades, their type & their value:
Leverage

4.3  Effect of planned trades

Account summary:
Starting capital: 1000
Line in the sand level:  7500

1.  Account balance (Settled trades) and growth as a percentage.  (10186=+2%)
2.  Account equity (Including open positions) .  (9951=-1%)
3.  Account equity if planned trades go wrong: 0
4.  Pip distance to line in the sand level. 

20120519 EZ Greek exit

There is a strong EU political will to keep the whole project including every aspect of the EZ project in tact, navigate these troubled times (caused by and exacerbated by the Wall Street Oligarchs) and in the process leave a much stronger crisis management infrastructure in place.

A Greek exit will be pretty damaging for the euro and I would probably begin to consider the sensibility of basically defaulting to a long EURUSD bias .

Just because the issue is so important on the highest and deepest level of the EU project and as such it is on a level of competing philosophies between the EU and the US approaches to the structuring of societies, and it will be seen as a failure of the EU view of how a society can work they will probably pull out all stops to prevent that (without for one moment suggesting or creating the impression it is on the above level).

The only way they can do that I guess is to throw a lot of money at the problem.  This implies the ECB does something big, that generally resolve the issue almost in the same way as the Fed rescued all the US too big to fail banks in 2008.

If that happens we should see the same as in 2010.  ECB entered the fray on the weekend just after the flash crash (May 6th, 2010).  EUR spiked from multi moon lows and sold off from the spike high to even worse lows and then recovers.

20120515–Bottom picking

A measure that seldom fails to determine a bottom during noise is that if you get data / event that should support the noise based short term price action, but then the price action reverse directly after the data / event.  I.e typical buy the rumour, sell the fact price action

Weekly Briefing 110926

1.  Review.

A risk off week with USD and JPY gaining and AUD and EUR loosing.
Trades
Short AUDUSD, AUDCAD, NZDUSD

2.  Analysis.

"Fundamental analysis"
For a big EUR south move you need EU trouble and US economic growth and normality. If you don't have both, no big euro south side and potential for euro upside due to the structural improvements and the long term USD diversification
Unless there is something substantially and tragically new it is wholly unlikely that EURUSD will move below the January lows (1.26)
Things are going to stay risk off until the Greeks decide on a unity government
Demand for safety as European politics raises uncertainty has resulted in lower US Treasury yields and a stronger buck. Despite softer U.S. data, Fed officials have indicated their reluctance to engage in further QE.
GBP: we believe the focus will be on the downward revision to growth, however we expect the report to reaffirm the sticky inflation problem in the UK, which may stop the Bank from re-starting its QE program.

Id	Driver	Comments	Immanency
1	On-going global recovery	Germany is in good economic shape. EZ growth low. US growth uncertain	Yes
2	Divergence in FED and BCE monetary policy	FED will be on hold for until 2015;	No
3	EZ break up	EU dynamic is a longer term dynamic of "putting the structures in place”	Yes
4	PIIGS	Greece government and Spain banks in focus	Yes
5	QE3	Not off the table; PIMCO says yes	Yes
6	Commodity rise	Falling prices are confirming slowdown	Yes

"Technical analysis"
Morgan Stanley says, at least 1.2700 for now, but in case its EURO to HERO eat your losses at 1.3100 (as reported by fxlive.)
EURUSD broke the key support level of 1.300
Constructive for the dollar as the dollar index is trading above the 80.00 level

Median grid
EURUSD GRID 1.2800-1.3400, neutral bias (grid change)
USDJPY GRID 76.00-80.00, neutral bias
AUDJPY GRID 76.00-80.00, down bias (grid change)
USDCHF GRID 0.9250-0.8750, up bias (grid change)

Currency	Short term view(technical)	Long term view (fundamentals)
USD
JPY
CHF
EUR

"Market dynamics”
At this stage the USD reacts positive / negative in the very short term (intraday to intra week) mainly versus JPY on US based events / data.
We expect the yen to be range bound.
GBPUSD looks well supported above 1.6060, however we are more wary of potential strength in this pair due to 1, the sharp rejection of 1.6300 – a key resistance level , - last month, and 2, the safe haven status of the dollar.
We continue to see EURUSD move lower, but we think it will be an incremental decline rather than a prolonged downtrend

Key events:
Monday: US pending home sales
Tuesday: US CB Consumer Confidence
Wednesday: US ADP, CAD GDP m/m
Thursday: US Unemployment Claims, ISM PMI
Friday: US NFP, Unemployment rate

Prices and Risk on/off view

RORO (30): -1.05

3.  Plan

4.  Trades

Positions
USDJPY +2
EURUSD 0
USDCHF 0
AUDJPY +0
EURJPY 0
CADJPY 0
EURAUD 0

4.1 open trades, their type & their value:
Leverage

4.3  Effect of planned trades

Account summary:
Starting capital: 1000
Line in the sand level:  7500

1.  Account balance (Settled trades) and growth as a percentage.  (10186=+2%)
2.  Account equity (Including open positions) .  (9951=-1%)
3.  Account equity if planned trades go wrong: 0
4.  Pip distance to line in the sand level. 

100509 Euro move

For a big EUR south move you need
1.  EU trouble and
2. US economic growth and normality. 
If you don't have both, no big euro south side and potential for euro upside due to the structural improvements and the long term USD diversification

People like PIMCO's Bill Gross and Jan Hatzius at Goldman Sachs are telling their customers to prepare for QE3, to combat a slowing U.S. economy

The Chinese are buying all this Gold so that when they finally allow their currency to be backed by Gold, in some percentage. It may not be 100%, but a 25% backing of Gold, would the renminbi the most attractive currency in the world.