There is a strong EU political will to keep the whole project including every aspect of the EZ project in tact, navigate these troubled times (caused by and exacerbated by the Wall Street Oligarchs) and in the process leave a much stronger crisis management infrastructure in place.
A Greek exit will be pretty damaging for the euro and I would probably begin to consider the sensibility of basically defaulting to a long EURUSD bias .
Just because the issue is so important on the highest and deepest level of the EU project and as such it is on a level of competing philosophies between the EU and the US approaches to the structuring of societies, and it will be seen as a failure of the EU view of how a society can work they will probably pull out all stops to prevent that (without for one moment suggesting or creating the impression it is on the above level).
The only way they can do that I guess is to throw a lot of money at the problem. This implies the ECB does something big, that generally resolve the issue almost in the same way as the Fed rescued all the US too big to fail banks in 2008.
If that happens we should see the same as in 2010. ECB entered the fray on the weekend just after the flash crash (May 6th, 2010). EUR spiked from multi moon lows and sold off from the spike high to even worse lows and then recovers.
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