Daily Briefing 110110

1.  Review.

It would need to recover from holidays, so we will start shorter than usual.

I said “ I would expect a 1.33 – 1.30 trading range during holidays”. I was almost like this. ADP on 05/01 pose a strong USD gain expecting Friday NFP data. NFP payroll was a disappointing, but USD gained anyway. Now EIRUSD is 1.2900.
Trades
Shorted EURUSD with 15o pips gain.

2.  Analysis.

"Fundamental analysis data"
US ADP: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 297K 101K 92K, much better than expected
USD Non-Farm Employment Change 103K 159K 71K, much worse than expected
"Fundamental analysis"
The trend is pointing toward growing momentum for the US economy, which we expect to see in the next few months at least. We expect the EUR to lower in the next weeks to come, due mainly to sovereign debt risk. EUR decline, not a implosion, will not be in a straight line, due to China interest in USD diversification, buying on EUR dips.
"Technical analysis"
EURUSD tumbled at 1.2907, breaking the previous November 1.2970 low. If does not hold 1.2970, next support at 1.26/7 area. COT data are below. USD close to 81.5, at the upper trading range since December; USDJPY traded stable comfortably in the 82 area after weeks jumped in the 83 area. Again at this level BoJ would intervene if the 80 level will be broken. Gold all time highs at 1.3060; US futures stable again in to the 1180. GOLD/Oil ratio stable, little rising; VIX stable to low levels. 2.8 is a critical resistance for US yields, to be watched for the USDJPY correlation.
COT JPY up at 66.1k (-22k)
COT USD up to 1.2k (-10.2k)
COT EUR at 3.7k (-10k)
COT AUD down 84.9k (-7k)
TYN up to 2.87% (+0.1%)
JGB at 1.07% (+0.03%)
Bunds at 2.7%. (+0.2%)

German/Greece up to 8.86% (-0.01%)
VIX down to 18.4 (-0.4)
Gold/Oil up to 16.5 (+3.8)

"Market dynamics”
USD probably is strengthening.
EUR is again under pressure, a sell on dips.
AUD is weighted by floods; a buy on dips.
CAD is strengthening on good job report, increasing inflation expecting in a rate hike and a crude oil appreciation.

Median grid
EURUSD GRID 1.320 - 1.40, grid change up bias
USDJPY GRID 80.00-84.00, up bias
AUDJPY GRID 73.00-81.00, up bias

Prices
US up at 1266, (+0, new grid Q2),
GOLD to at 1368, (-0, Q4+)
Crude 88.4 (-0$)
EURUSD 1.2097 (-0. 0, Q1-)
USDJPY 83.13 (+.0, Q3)
AUDJPY 82.75 (+-1.1 Q4+)

3.  Plan

EURUSD
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USDJPY
Comment:< >

AUDJPY
Comment:< >

EURNOK
Comment:< >

4.  Trades
4.1 open trades, their type & their value:
1 Open 05-set-10 USDJPY L 84.2600 83.2600 Q4 0.2 B&B 83.13 -113.0000 -11.3000 -8.07
3 Open 13-dic-10 USDJPY L 83.4800 83.2600 Q4 0.2 B&B 83.13 -35.0000 -3.5000 -2.50
Leverage

Aggregate position size expressed as a gearing ratio (Ex = 3:1)

Total positions per currency:
USDJPY +2
EURUSD 0
AUDJPY 0
Position
USDJPY -12, -3
EURUSD 0
AUDJPY 0

4.3  Effect of planned trades

Account summary:
Saxo live account
Starting capital: 1000
Line in the sand level:  7500

1.  Account balance (Settled trades) and growth as a percentage.  (10038=0.3%)
2.  Account equity (Including open positions) .  (10030= +0.3%)
3.  Account equity if planned trades go wrong: 1011
4.  Pip distance to line in the sand level.  6270, with gear (0.1) 12000