Daily Briefing 110117

1.  Review.

I said “USD probably is strengthening. EUR is again under pressure, a sell on dips.” I was wrong; EUR surged on good Portuguese bond auction and hawkish Trichet comments. “AUD is weighted by floods; a buy on dips.” Still not “CAD is strengthening on good job report, increasing inflation expecting in a rate hike and a crude oil appreciation.” Mostly ranging.
Trades
No trades.

2.  Analysis.

"Fundamental analysis data"
Almost positive AUD employment numbers
USD PPI 1.1% (cons 0.8%, prev. 0.8%), greater than expected
Core CPI and UoM sentiment worse than expected
"Fundamental analysis"
The trend is pointing toward growing momentum for the US economy, which we expect to see in the next few months at least. EUR comments say that EUR is too strong; European don’t want a strong EUR, as anyone else for his currency. It would be too costly for bailouts. Probably these are burden for a 1.40 scenario. Interest rates differential anticipations are providing support. German reluctance t add more funds to the bailout, weak data (see ZEW on Tuesday and less Hawkins comment could weight on EUR.

"Technical analysis"
EURUSD after tumbling at 1.2907, breaking the previous November 1.2970 low, rallied to 1.34. 1.2970 s support next support at 1.26/7 area. COT data are below. USD close to 79, at the lower trading range since December; USDJPY traded stable in the 82 area after weeks jumped in the 83 area. Again at this level BoJ would intervene if the 80 level will be broken. Gold at 1.368; US futures up to the 1270 (+90). Oil at 90.16. GOLD/Oil ratio stable, little rising; VIX stable to low levels.
COT USD up to 56k (+50.2k)
COT JPY up at 30.1k (-36k)
COT EUR at 3.7k (-0k)
COT AUD down 60.9k (-20k)
TYN up to 3.33% (+0.5%)
JGB at 1.26% (+0.2%)
Bunds at 3.1%. (+0.4%)

German/Greece up to 8.4% (-0.4%)
VIX down to 15.7 (-2.4)
Gold/Oil up to 15.1 (-1.0)

"Market dynamics”
EUR is going to test 1.35/6 levels. Probably it will be a sell on strength. Probably will not stay up of 1.40 too long. Very uncertain if go short or long. Maybe ride the long to 1.4 then short.

Median grid
EURUSD GRID 1.300 - 1.360, grid change up bias
USDJPY GRID 80.00-84.00, up bias
AUDJPY GRID 73.00-81.00, up bias

Prices
US up at 1270, (+0, new grid Q2),
GOLD to at 1368, (-0, Q4+)
Crude 91.1 (+3.0$)
EURUSD 1.3450 (+0.500, Q1-)
USDJPY 82.11 (-.1, Q2)
AUDJPY 81.9 (-0.8 Q4+)

3.  Plan

EURUSD
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USDJPY
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AUDJPY
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EURNOK
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4.  Trades
4.1 open trades, their type & their value:
1 Open 05-set-10 USDJPY L 84.2600 83.2600 Q4 0.2 B&B 83.13 -113.0000 -11.3000 -8.07

3 Open 13-dic-10 USDJPY L 83.4800 83.2600 Q4 0.2 B&B 83.13 -35.0000 -3.5000 -2.50
Leverage

Aggregate position size expressed as a gearing ratio (Ex = 3:1)

Total positions per currency:
USDJPY +2
EURUSD 0
AUDJPY 0
Position
USDJPY -12, -3
EURUSD 0
AUDJPY 0

4.3  Effect of planned trades

Account summary:
Saxo live account
Starting capital: 1000
Line in the sand level:  7500

1.  Account balance (Settled trades) and growth as a percentage.  (10038=0.3%)
2.  Account equity (Including open positions) .  (10030= +0.3%)
3.  Account equity if planned trades go wrong: 1011
4.  Pip distance to line in the sand level.  6270, with gear (0.1) 12000