Stefano Piovesan Daily Briefing 110131

1.  Review.

I said “After testing is 1.35/6 levels, I see EUR 1.37/8 as topping level, as final point of the short unwinding. Probably it will be a sell on strength. Probably will not stay in the 1.40 levels too long. I see the 1.30 levels as a strong support level. I will use these strong EUR levels to establish more fundamentals short EUR.” EUR stayed all week long at 1.37 levels before going back to beginning of week 1.36, also due to a risk off for Egypt issues. “Gold and silver could trade at lows this week and can be time to establish long bias positions, due to renewed interest in the metal because FED would keep rates low for a for the extended period of time.” God did not move that much .”I will buy USDJPY probably in the 81 area”. Not yet. A quiet week.
Trades
No trades.

2.  Analysis.

"Fundamental analysis data"
Japan S&P downgrade to AA-
USD statement to maintain 600bl stimulus
US unemployment claims back to 450k
ZEW German data: 15.4 (6.5 4.3) surprised to upside

US GDP 3.2%, (5.2%, 2.6%)
"Fundamental analysis"
Spain is taking action to solve the Cajas banks, hurting finances in the short term but for long term benefits. Government announced a drop from 9% to 5% in deficit for the 2010. Anyway you will need some strong PIIGS reason to cause the EUR to go south 1.30, and probably also some buy USD reasons.
JPY downgrade has caused not much impact on forex because only 5% of debt is hold by foreign.
RBA is on hold for longer than anticipated for the flood issues.

"Technical analysis"
EURUSD was stuck at 1.37 level for all the week. COT data are below. EUR long jumped very high. USD close to 78.28 (-0.1); USDJPY traded stable in the 82-3 area. Gold at 1.342; US futures up to the 1279 (+9). Oil at 89.06. GOLD/Oil ratio stable, little rising; VIX stable to low levels.
COT USD up to 14k (-20.2k)
COT JPY up at 49.1k (+29k)
COT EUR at 72.7k (+20k)
COT AUD down 42.9k (-17k)
TYN up to 3.32% (-0.08%)
JGB at 1.2% (+0.0%)
Bunds at 3.1%. (+0.0%)

German/Greece up to 8.3% (+0.2%)
VIX down to 20.4 (+2) Jump!
Gold/Oil up to 14.9 (-0.2)

"Market dynamics”
After testing is 1.35/6 levels, I see EUR 1.37/8 as topping level, as final point of the short unwinding. Probably it will be a sell on strength. I maintain bullish view on EURUSD, but probably it will not stay in these levels too long. I see the 1.30 levels as a strong support level. Technical picture suggest a EURUSD reversal. I will do some quick short, waiting for the next week job report. I would establish long position at dips, like 1.34/5. I will buy USDJPY in the 81 area. Risk aversion for Egypt event should be considered.

Median grid
EURUSD GRID 1.300 - 1.360, grid change up bias
USDJPY GRID 80.00-84.00, up bias
AUDJPY GRID 73.00-81.00, up bias

Prices
US at 1270, (-20, new grid Q2),
GOLD to at 1336, (-6, Q4+)
Crude 89.4 (+1.0$)
EURUSD 1.3610 (+0.000, Q4)
USDJPY 82.12 (-0.5, Q2)
AUDJPY 81.6 (-0.07 Q4+)

3.  Plan

EURUSD
Comment:< >

USDJPY
Comment:< >

AUDJPY
Comment:< >

EURNOK
Comment:< >

4.  Trades
4.1 open trades, their type & their value:
1 Open 05-set-10 USDJPY L 84.2600 83.2600 Q4 0.2 B&B 82.1 -216.0000 -16.3000 -11.07

3 Open 13-dic-10 USDJPY L 83.4800 83.2600 Q4 0.2 B&B 82.1 -138.0000 -8.5000 -6.50
12 Open17-gen-11 EURUSD S 1.3270 1.3420 Q2 0.2 B&B 1.3616 -346.0000 -35.6000
Leverage

Aggregate position size expressed as a gearing ratio (Ex = 3:1)

Total positions per currency:
USDJPY +2
EURUSD -1
AUDJPY 0
Position
USDJPY -16, -8
EURUSD -34
AUDJPY 0

4.3  Effect of planned trades

Account summary:
Saxo live account
Starting capital: 1000
Line in the sand level:  7500

1.  Account balance (Settled trades) and growth as a percentage.  (10038=0.3%)
2.  Account equity (Including open positions) .  (10030= +0.3%)
3.  Account equity if planned trades go wrong: 1011
4.  Pip distance to line in the sand level.  6270, with gear (0.1) 12000

Daily Briefing 110117

1.  Review.

I said “USD probably is strengthening. EUR is again under pressure, a sell on dips.” I was wrong; EUR surged on good Portuguese bond auction and hawkish Trichet comments. “AUD is weighted by floods; a buy on dips.” Still not “CAD is strengthening on good job report, increasing inflation expecting in a rate hike and a crude oil appreciation.” Mostly ranging.
Trades
No trades.

2.  Analysis.

"Fundamental analysis data"
Almost positive AUD employment numbers
USD PPI 1.1% (cons 0.8%, prev. 0.8%), greater than expected
Core CPI and UoM sentiment worse than expected
"Fundamental analysis"
The trend is pointing toward growing momentum for the US economy, which we expect to see in the next few months at least. EUR comments say that EUR is too strong; European don’t want a strong EUR, as anyone else for his currency. It would be too costly for bailouts. Probably these are burden for a 1.40 scenario. Interest rates differential anticipations are providing support. German reluctance t add more funds to the bailout, weak data (see ZEW on Tuesday and less Hawkins comment could weight on EUR.

"Technical analysis"
EURUSD after tumbling at 1.2907, breaking the previous November 1.2970 low, rallied to 1.34. 1.2970 s support next support at 1.26/7 area. COT data are below. USD close to 79, at the lower trading range since December; USDJPY traded stable in the 82 area after weeks jumped in the 83 area. Again at this level BoJ would intervene if the 80 level will be broken. Gold at 1.368; US futures up to the 1270 (+90). Oil at 90.16. GOLD/Oil ratio stable, little rising; VIX stable to low levels.
COT USD up to 56k (+50.2k)
COT JPY up at 30.1k (-36k)
COT EUR at 3.7k (-0k)
COT AUD down 60.9k (-20k)
TYN up to 3.33% (+0.5%)
JGB at 1.26% (+0.2%)
Bunds at 3.1%. (+0.4%)

German/Greece up to 8.4% (-0.4%)
VIX down to 15.7 (-2.4)
Gold/Oil up to 15.1 (-1.0)

"Market dynamics”
EUR is going to test 1.35/6 levels. Probably it will be a sell on strength. Probably will not stay up of 1.40 too long. Very uncertain if go short or long. Maybe ride the long to 1.4 then short.

Median grid
EURUSD GRID 1.300 - 1.360, grid change up bias
USDJPY GRID 80.00-84.00, up bias
AUDJPY GRID 73.00-81.00, up bias

Prices
US up at 1270, (+0, new grid Q2),
GOLD to at 1368, (-0, Q4+)
Crude 91.1 (+3.0$)
EURUSD 1.3450 (+0.500, Q1-)
USDJPY 82.11 (-.1, Q2)
AUDJPY 81.9 (-0.8 Q4+)

3.  Plan

EURUSD
Comment:< >

USDJPY
Comment:< >

AUDJPY
Comment:< >

EURNOK
Comment:< >

4.  Trades
4.1 open trades, their type & their value:
1 Open 05-set-10 USDJPY L 84.2600 83.2600 Q4 0.2 B&B 83.13 -113.0000 -11.3000 -8.07

3 Open 13-dic-10 USDJPY L 83.4800 83.2600 Q4 0.2 B&B 83.13 -35.0000 -3.5000 -2.50
Leverage

Aggregate position size expressed as a gearing ratio (Ex = 3:1)

Total positions per currency:
USDJPY +2
EURUSD 0
AUDJPY 0
Position
USDJPY -12, -3
EURUSD 0
AUDJPY 0

4.3  Effect of planned trades

Account summary:
Saxo live account
Starting capital: 1000
Line in the sand level:  7500

1.  Account balance (Settled trades) and growth as a percentage.  (10038=0.3%)
2.  Account equity (Including open positions) .  (10030= +0.3%)
3.  Account equity if planned trades go wrong: 1011
4.  Pip distance to line in the sand level.  6270, with gear (0.1) 12000

Daily Briefing 110110

1.  Review.

It would need to recover from holidays, so we will start shorter than usual.

I said “ I would expect a 1.33 – 1.30 trading range during holidays”. I was almost like this. ADP on 05/01 pose a strong USD gain expecting Friday NFP data. NFP payroll was a disappointing, but USD gained anyway. Now EIRUSD is 1.2900.
Trades
Shorted EURUSD with 15o pips gain.

2.  Analysis.

"Fundamental analysis data"
US ADP: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 297K 101K 92K, much better than expected
USD Non-Farm Employment Change 103K 159K 71K, much worse than expected
"Fundamental analysis"
The trend is pointing toward growing momentum for the US economy, which we expect to see in the next few months at least. We expect the EUR to lower in the next weeks to come, due mainly to sovereign debt risk. EUR decline, not a implosion, will not be in a straight line, due to China interest in USD diversification, buying on EUR dips.
"Technical analysis"
EURUSD tumbled at 1.2907, breaking the previous November 1.2970 low. If does not hold 1.2970, next support at 1.26/7 area. COT data are below. USD close to 81.5, at the upper trading range since December; USDJPY traded stable comfortably in the 82 area after weeks jumped in the 83 area. Again at this level BoJ would intervene if the 80 level will be broken. Gold all time highs at 1.3060; US futures stable again in to the 1180. GOLD/Oil ratio stable, little rising; VIX stable to low levels. 2.8 is a critical resistance for US yields, to be watched for the USDJPY correlation.
COT JPY up at 66.1k (-22k)
COT USD up to 1.2k (-10.2k)
COT EUR at 3.7k (-10k)
COT AUD down 84.9k (-7k)
TYN up to 2.87% (+0.1%)
JGB at 1.07% (+0.03%)
Bunds at 2.7%. (+0.2%)

German/Greece up to 8.86% (-0.01%)
VIX down to 18.4 (-0.4)
Gold/Oil up to 16.5 (+3.8)

"Market dynamics”
USD probably is strengthening.
EUR is again under pressure, a sell on dips.
AUD is weighted by floods; a buy on dips.
CAD is strengthening on good job report, increasing inflation expecting in a rate hike and a crude oil appreciation.

Median grid
EURUSD GRID 1.320 - 1.40, grid change up bias
USDJPY GRID 80.00-84.00, up bias
AUDJPY GRID 73.00-81.00, up bias

Prices
US up at 1266, (+0, new grid Q2),
GOLD to at 1368, (-0, Q4+)
Crude 88.4 (-0$)
EURUSD 1.2097 (-0. 0, Q1-)
USDJPY 83.13 (+.0, Q3)
AUDJPY 82.75 (+-1.1 Q4+)

3.  Plan

EURUSD
Comment:< >

USDJPY
Comment:< >

AUDJPY
Comment:< >

EURNOK
Comment:< >

4.  Trades
4.1 open trades, their type & their value:
1 Open 05-set-10 USDJPY L 84.2600 83.2600 Q4 0.2 B&B 83.13 -113.0000 -11.3000 -8.07
3 Open 13-dic-10 USDJPY L 83.4800 83.2600 Q4 0.2 B&B 83.13 -35.0000 -3.5000 -2.50
Leverage

Aggregate position size expressed as a gearing ratio (Ex = 3:1)

Total positions per currency:
USDJPY +2
EURUSD 0
AUDJPY 0
Position
USDJPY -12, -3
EURUSD 0
AUDJPY 0

4.3  Effect of planned trades

Account summary:
Saxo live account
Starting capital: 1000
Line in the sand level:  7500

1.  Account balance (Settled trades) and growth as a percentage.  (10038=0.3%)
2.  Account equity (Including open positions) .  (10030= +0.3%)
3.  Account equity if planned trades go wrong: 1011
4.  Pip distance to line in the sand level.  6270, with gear (0.1) 12000

Daily Briefing 101221

1.  Review.

I said “After bottoming at 1.3 the EURUSD rebound could be short lived. Probably the EUR is not stopping here and a real support could be the 1.27/8 level. So I would sell EURUSD on rallies, rather than buying on dips.” EURUSD rallied to 1.35, but then back to 1.3187. Rally was probably for negative US tax cut announcement. Any way the dollar ended at December highs at the end of the week. USDJPY is capped at 84.3/4 levels and a presumable top on US yields could put downside pressure on the pair.
Trades
Closed EURUSD long at 1.347 (-150 pips) and added a USDJPY long at 83.48.

2.  Analysis.

"Fundamental analysis data"
US Core retail sales, PPI and CPI were greater than expected
US unemployment claims were stable at 420k
ZEW (EU and German better than expected).
German ifo at highest levels (109) since German reunification in 1991.

"Fundamental analysis"
US tax cut: even if there was a USD sell off on the new, at the end the tax cut can be viewed positively because: 1) it can be viewed as another fiscal stimulus, improving the US growth and reducing the likelihood of QE3, a major dollar negative event. 2) a raise in the USD yields, supportive for the dollar and the prospect of a need of higher interest rates. In the near term FED assurance that interest rates will remain low, will add limit to the dollar upside.
EUR: a permanent resolution mechanism was agreed in case of sovereign debt crisis starting from 2013. Euro bong proposed idea need to mature again.
UK data was mixed, but the market focused on bad outlook and we believe further growth downside is ahead. Gold and silver remains a strong demand because of investor differentiations against fiat money.
Oil demand for 2011 was revisited at the upside, stockpiles are declined; oil price is revised on the upside in the next weeks.

"Technical analysis"
EURUSD bottomed at 1.313 after recovering to 1.34. A close below 1.31 would suggest a test of the 1.2970 level. A clear breakout will lead at the 1.26/7 area.
US yield looks like to have reached a top, confirmed by the USDJPY capped at 84.4
COT JPY up at 18k (-30k)
COT USD up to 30.4k (-16k)
COT EUR at 41.1k (+3k)
COT AUD up 74k (+17k)
TYN up to 3.32% (-0.2%)
JGB at 1.2% (+0.03%)
Bunds at 3.02%. (+0.8%)

German/Greece up to 8.89% (+0.1%)
VIX down to 16.1 (-2.2)
Gold/Oil up to 15.5 (-0.5)

"Market dynamics”
After bottoming at 1.3 the EURUSD rebound was short lived. Probably the EUR is not stopping here and a real support could be the 1.27/8 level. So I would sell EURUSD on rallies, rather than buying on dips. Especially on this December tiny and volatile market.

Median grid
EURUSD GRID 1.310 - 1.37, down bias
USDJPY GRID 80.00-84.00, up bias
AUDJPY GRID 73.00-81.00, long bias

Prices
US up at 1228, (+18, Q4)
GOLD to at 1375, (+25, Q4+)
Crude 88.6 (+0.3$)
EURUSD 1.3180 (-0. 08, Q1)
USDJPY 84.0 (-0.4, Q4)
AUDJPY 82.95 (+-0.9, Q4+)

3.  Plan
No big plans: try to fix the loss in EURUSD and square USDJPY

EURUSD
I will enter a short if resistance 1.34 holds and enter a short B&B on the yob level (1.3255) and maybe another lot at 1.3105. I will hedge on a couple of level up (-100 pips). I will take profit at 50-100 pips.
Comment:< >

USDJPY
I will add a dip: I will enter a long if support 82.5 holds and enter a long B&B on the yob level (83.17). I will hedge on a couple of level down (-100 pips). I will take profit at 50-100 pips. Comment:< >

AUDJPY
Comment:< >

EURNOK
Comment:< >

4.  Trades
4.1 open trades, their type & their value:
1 Open 05-set-10 USDJPY L 84.2600 83.2600 Q1 0.2 B&B 84 -26.0000 -6

3 Open 13-dic-10 USDJPY L 83.4800 83.2600 Q1 0.2B&B 84 52.0000 5.2000 3.714.2
9 Open 29-nov-10 EURUSD S 1.3097 1.3247 Q2 0.2 Hedge (8) 1.3182 -85.0000 -8.5000
Leverage

Aggregate position size expressed as a gearing ratio (Ex = 3:1)

Total positions per currency:
USDJPY +2
EURUSD -1
AUDJPY 0
Position
USDJPY -6,+5
EURUSD -7
AUDJPY 0

4.3  Effect of planned trades

Account summary:
Saxo live account
Starting capital: 1000
Line in the sand level:  7500

1.  Account balance (Settled trades) and growth as a percentage.  (10032=0.3%)
2.  Account equity (Including open positions) .  (10019= +0.2%)
3.  Account equity if planned trades go wrong: 1011
4.  Pip distance to line in the sand level.  2500, with gear (0.2) 12000

Daily Briefing 101022

1.  Review.

I said “USD, that was supposed to go down, strengthen, suggesting a correction in extreme short positions. But this could end up in a significant shift in the market direction, as we see relative growth prospects in monetary policy as he ground for further USD strength. Growth slowdown is weighting on EUR and JPY.” USD recovered again versus EUR and JPY, with the Irish crisis still opened, but risk turned off at the end of the week, where EZ crisis looks under control. “Further USD strengthen suggest commodities and gold weakness in the week ahead. WTI reached pivotal 84-85$ prices; weakness below would suggest a decline to 80 level on next week”. Crude reached 80$ level and gold declined to 1330; rebound at the end of week “ I would expect both gold and crude to decline sustaining a strong USD. I think there is some guidance to exploit EZ sovereign debt during G20 (maximum exposure) to hide the QE2 effects, showing a strong US that is not. Then I will be long EUR if the 1.36 level holds and long USDJPY if dipping.”. 1.36 is holding, after a small dip at 1.3490, JPY did not dipped
Trades
Shorted EURUSD at 1.530, expecting a range to 1.34 but I closed with loss at 1.3670. Closed a USDJPY long from 83.25 at 83.5

2.  Analysis.

"Fundamental analysis data"
US retails sales: 1.2%, better than expected
AUD RBA minutes: rate hike was well pondered, a modest hike was prudent.
ZEW: EZ 13.8 against 2.3; German 1.8, against an expected -5; first increase since seven months. German GDP growth is expected to be 3.7%, faster growth since 1991.
USD PPI: 0.4% against a 0.7% reflecting low car, truck and computer demand. Low PPI keep a lid on lower inflation; Companies are not increasing prices but reducing off-the-shelf package size.
US TIC: long term securities purchases were 80bl against 100bl expected, low from previous 120bl reading
US CPI: 0% against expected 0.1%, to a record low inflation.
US unemployment claims: +2k to 439, less than expected 442k
US housing data weak down 11%. That is not helping employment and giving credit to QE.
US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index strong at 22, 4 times the expected value.
German PPI m/m: 0.4% as expected, that accelerate inflation in respect of previous year.
CNY CPI: 4.4% against 3.6% expected, that suggest a new RRR rate hike of 50 bps, expected end of year

"Fundamental analysis"
EUR industrial production for Q3 is suggesting a slowdown in EUR growth and this is still expected to be more in Q4. USD data was again more upbeat. Bernanke justify QE2 with these unemployment numbers. CNY rate hike announcement caused a small risk off but it was good digested by the market; good US data, no bad EZ, end of Irish crisis and QE2 free money are still supportive for risk on.
US yields increased and this could be supportive for the USD.
Risk about EZ peripherals countries is rising again (spreads and CDS rising again) caused EUR to move down in the 1.35 area. the Irish story is QUITE over and a rescue package is coming. BoJ is not intervening at these YEN level .

"Technical analysis"
USD gained further of the pre-QE2 levels after QE2 release losses, but lost gains at the end of week especially against EUR. EURUSD tumbled at 1.35. Support at 1.36 look like to hold. 1.36 area is still a key support for EUR, because is the area where started dipping in the 1.2 levels. COT data are below, basically flat. USD close to 78.5, sill above the 78.4 support, before resistance; USDJPY traded stable comfortably in the 82 area after weeks jumped in the 83 area. Again at this level BoJ would intervene if the 80 level will be broken. Gold all time highs at 1.3060; US futures stable again in to the 1180. GOLD/Oil ratio stable, little rising; VIX stable to low levels. 2.8 is a critical resistance for US yields, to be watched for the USDJPY correlation.
COT JPY up at 24.1k (-12k)
COT USD up to 10.6k (+2.2k)
COT EUR at 10.1k (-13kk)
COT AUD down 26.9k (-13k)
TYN up to 2.87% (+0.1%)
JGB at 1.07% (+0.03%)
Bunds at 2.7%. (+0.2%)
German/Greece up to 8.86% (-0.01%)
VIX down to 18.4 (-0.4)
Gold/Oil up to 16.5 (+3.8)

"Market dynamics”
Again this week USD, that was supposed to go down, strengthen, suggesting a correction in extreme short positions. Further US strengthen is expected in the week ahead, especially versus EUR if market shift attention to other peripherals or Spain. Further USD strengthen suggest commodities and gold weakness in the week ahead. WTI reached pivotal 84-85$ prices; weakness below would suggest a decline to 80 level on next week. I would expect both gold and crude decline to sustaining a strong USD. Anyway Dirk opinion is not to love too much USD beyond this Irish episode. I would agree more with this view if support holds and risk does not turn on. Then I will be long EUR is the 1.36 level holds and long USDJPY if dipping.

Median grid
EURUSD GRID 1.320 - 1.40, grid change up bias
USDJPY GRID 80.00-84.00, up bias
AUDJPY GRID 73.00-81.00, up bias

Prices
US up at 1197, (+3, Q4)
GOLD to at 1353, (-13, Q4)
Crude 81.8 (-3$)
EURUSD 1.375 (-0. 0, Q2)
USDJPY 83.56 (+1.0, Q4)
AUDJPY 82.38 (+-1.1 Q4)

3.  Plan
I will buy EURUSD +1 at these levels. 1.32/3 buffer. Still long USDJPY expecting BoJ intervention, but add stops. Buy a dip.

EURUSD
I will enter a long if support 1.355 holds and enter a long B&B on the yob level (1.3558) and another lot at 1.3707. I will hedge on a couple of level down (-100 pips). I will take profit at 50-100 pips.
Comment:< >

USDJPY
I will add a dip: I will enter a long if support 82.5 holds and enter a long B&B on the yob level (82.67) and another lot at 2 you levels. I will hedge on a couple of level down (-100 pips). I will take profit at 50-100 pips.
Comment:< >

AUDJPY
Comment:< >

EURNOK
Comment:< >

4.  Trades
4.1 open trades, their type & their value:
1 Open 05-set-10 USDJPY L 84.2600 83.2600 Q1 0.2 B&B 83.5-72.0000 -8.000
4.2 Leverage

Aggregate position size expressed as a gearing ratio (Ex = 3:1)

Total positions per currency:
USDJPY +1
EURUSD 0
AUDJPY 0
Position
USDJPY -8
EURUSD 0
AUDJPY 0

4.3  Effect of planned trades

Account summary:
Saxo live account
Starting capital: 1000
Line in the sand level:  7500
1.  Account balance (Settled trades) and growth as a percentage.  (10038=0.3%)
2.  Account equity (Including open positions) .  (10030= +0.3%)
3.  Account equity if planned trades go wrong: 1011
4.  Pip distance to line in the sand level.  6270, with gear (0.1) 12000

Daily Briefing 101015

1.  Review.

I said “FED announcement, dollar pumps and good far east data are basically set a risk on environment. This is also good for US stocks. But with late of week USD recovery and good data releases (ISM orders, NFP) I will go into next week with a USD cautiously optimistic view.” USD strengthened and risk was off due the Irish debt crisis and some CNY rite hike fears. “Recent QE2 may lead to further rise in commodities prices and then lead to higher inflation, especially in AUD. Further rate hikes are expected and the some AUD upside.” Gold surged but dropped sharply on the end of week. “Anyway there is a risk that G-20 meeting will give US a free pass to weaken further USD. I will monitor US official statements. EUR peripheral concerns are likely to come back in this year end. ECB confirmed exit strategy and FED dollar pumps in the market are strengthening the EURUSD, but I see difficult to maintain gains above 1.45. Anyway after QE2 even with good US data, I don’t expect that USD will be strong at the height of the PIIGS story (EURUSD 1.200).” EUR dropped to 1.36, a critical level before the EUR-goes-to-zero March story. “I think that BoJ will wait G-20 to apply a coordinate intervention.” It was. “The basic medium term view is a risk on through the end of the year, that can be stopped maybe for:
1. A unknown developing crisis (any of sort) – not yet
2. China will dip prices to reenter commodities at lower levels – rate hikes supposed, but anything of fear
3. The PIIGS story back if EURUSD will rise at uncomfortable levels of 1.5 – EUR dipped, probably all the story is priced in at 1.36 level”.
Trades
Closed the short EURUSD with profit. I was not able to pull the trigger for a USDJPY long at 80.7

2.  Analysis.

"Fundamental analysis data"
A quite light week:
Thursday CYN CPI: 4.4%, more than expected; this is suggesting there is no stress in China growth and that can cause a new rate hike.
Friday German GDP: 0.7%, slightly below consensus, but reading suggest Germany economy is booming
Friday US UoM consumer sentiment: 69.6, positive outlook thanks to improved job numbers.
Good employment data from AUD; bad industrial production numbers from JPY.
"Fundamental analysis"
Weak EUR industrial production for Q3 is suggesting a slowdown in EUR growth and this is expected to be more in Q4. USD data was more upbeat.

Good CNY data and QE2 free money are still supportive for risk on.
US yields increased and this could be supportive for the USD.
Risk about EZ peripherals countries is rising again (spreads and CDS rising again) caused EUR to move down in the 1.36 area. Probably the Irish story is all over and already full priced in. BoJ is not intervening

"Technical analysis"
USD gained further of the pre-QE2 levels after QE2 release losses. EURUSD tumbled at 1.37. Support at 1.3950 did not hold. 1.36 area is a key support for EUR, because is the area where started dipping in the 1.2 levels. COT data are below, basically flat. USD traded up to 78.2, close to the 78.4 resistance; USDJPY traded stable comfortably in the 82 area after weeks. Again at this level BoJ would intervene if the 80 level will be broken. Gold all time highs at 1.3060; US futures stable again in to the 1180. GOLD/Oil ratio stable, little rising; VIX stable to low levels. 2.8 is a critical resistance for US yields, to be watched for the USDJPY correlation.
COT JPY up at 44.1k (+0k)
COT USD up to 8.4k (+0k)
COT EUR at 35.1k (+0k)
COT AUD down 49.7k (+0k)
TYN up to 2.78% (+0.2%)
JGB at 1.03% (+0.1%)
Bunds at 2.5%. (+0.1%)

German/Greece up to 8.87% (-0.31%)
VIX down to 18.64 (+0.2)
Gold/Oil up to 16.1 (-1.4)

"Market dynamics”
USD supposed to go down strengthen, suggesting a correction in extreme short positions. But this could end up in a significant shift in the market direction, as we see relative growth prospects in monetary policy as he ground for further USD strength. Growth slowdown is weighting on EUR and JPY. Further USD strengthen suggest commodities and gold weakness in the week ahead. WTI reached pivotal 84-85$ prices; weakness below would suggest a decline to 80 level on next week. I would expect both gold and crude to decline sustaining a strong USD. I think there is some guidance to exploit EZ sovereign debt during G20 (maximum exposure) to hide the QE2 effects, showing a strong US that is not. Then I will be long EUR is the 1.36 level holds and long USDJPY if dipping.

Median grid
EURUSD GRID 1.340 - 1.42, up bias
USDJPY GRID 80.00-84.00, up bias
AUDJPY GRID 73.00-81.00, long bias

Prices
US up at 1194, (-30, Q4)
GOLD to at 1368, (-30, Q4+), all time high at 1422
Crude 84.8 (-3$)
EURUSD 1.369 (-0. 34, Q1)
USDJPY 82.56 (+1.3, Q2)
AUDJPY 81.25 (+-1, Q4)

3.  Plan
I will buy EURUSD +1 at these levels. 1.36/4 buffer. Still long USDJPY expecting BoJ intervention, but add stops. Buy a dip.

EURUSD
I will enter a long if support 1.355 holds and enter a long B&B on the yob level (1.3605) and another lot at 1.3755. I will hedge on a couple of level down (-100 pips). I will take profit at 50-100 pips.
Comment:< >

USDJPY
I will add a dip: I will enter a long if support 81.5 holds and enter a long B&B on the yob level (1.3605) and another lot at 1.3755. I will hedge on a couple of level down (-100 pips). I will take profit at 50-100 pips.
Comment:< >

AUDJPY
Comment:< >

EURNOK
Comment:< >

4.  Trades
4.1 open trades, their type & their value:
1 Open 05-set-10 USDJPY L 84.2600 83.2600 Q1 0.2 B&B 82.5 -176.0000 -12.9000
2 Open 07-ott-10 USDJPY L 82.3600 83.2600 Q1 0.2 B&B 82.5 +16.0000 +1.1000
4.2 Leverage

Aggregate position size expressed as a gearing ratio (Ex = 3:1)

Total positions per currency:
USDJPY +2
EURUSD 0
AUDJPY 0
Position
USDJPY -12.0, +1
EURUSD 0
AUDJPY 0

4.3  Effect of planned trades

Account summary:
Saxo live account
Starting capital: 1000
Line in the sand level:  7500

1.  Account balance (Settled trades) and growth as a percentage.  (10022=0.2%)
2.  Account equity (Including open positions) .  (1011= +0.1%)
3.  Account equity if planned trades go wrong: 1011
4.  Pip distance to line in the sand level.  6270, with gear (0.2) 12000

Daily Briefing 101025

1.  Review.

I said “QE2 (bond buy program to push interest rates low) effects: we will have more USD unwinding and USD strength if we will have a QE2 large or medium, stepped in. This because QE2 will move FED away from any interest rate hiking. US rates low and for longer will stay and put pressure on USD”. After a USD sell off, USD recovered pre-QE2 levels after good NFP data “ If QE2 is that small than big initial numbers, after a short rally and closer to the grid low is the announcement, we will see EUR back to the top side of the grid to the 1.41-2 levels” .We didn’t get it. “PIMCO comments that this could be the end of the bond bull market; QE2 is like to pay your debt not getting the money from new creditors (i.e. banks) but writing a new check from your own (worst than a Ponzi’s scheme…). Then hedge funds and Wall Street are seeking alpha returns in EM and commodities, selling USD for that, until they will be hurt so much.” TYN did not move that much, but we have to monitor the next week. “BoJ is still expected to intervene to use measures to get the market out from these levels. The market is positioned for the BoJ to do something but the BoJ would wait the FCOM decisions.” BoJ waited but didn’t acted.
Trades
Short EURUSD //TODO.

2.  Analysis.

"Fundamental analysis data"
Monday CNY manufacturing PMI accelerated in October, up for the third consecutive month in back of new stronger orders and productions. US ISM on Wednesday and Friday NFP payroll surprised at the upside.
Good CNY data where supportive for the surprising RBA interest rate hike. RBA concern of China sharp slowdown are receded.
"Fundamental analysis"
Some fundamental comments by Jack Crooks, to underlay a very broad perspective:
US$↓ = ∫(GC)≈ + QE2↑=+ EM ∞↑

GC = Global Cooperation, QE = Quantitative Easing, EM = Emerging Markets

It says that dollars goes lower if global cooperation does not go any better, QE2 is greater than expected and emerging markets continues to grow without bubble burst risk.

US$↑ = ∫(GC)↑or↓ » QE2 ≤+ EM∞ ↓global cooperation improves (between US and China), low QE2; If cooperation goes bad or emerging markets starts to burst the dollar will go high on risk off sentiment.

Bottom line: If the US continues to fuel risky asset prices the dollar will stay low. But this could be also an extreme sentiment of dollar bearishness that can finish as soon as someone is hurt on risky assets.
Good CNY data, RBA interest rate hike, QE2 free money are supportive for risk on.
Risk about EZ peripherals countries is rising again (spreads and CDS rising again) is capping potential EUR move over the 1.42 area.
BoJ is not intervening

"Technical analysis"
USD recovered at same pre-QE2 levels after QE2 release losses. EURUSD spiked at the 1.4280 level after QE2, but retraced to 1.4030 on good NFP data; I think current trading range is broken. Support at 1.3950 and resistance at 1.42. COT data are below. USD still trading 76-78 range, after a plunge at 75.5; USDJPY traded in a strict 81 area, making a fresh low at 80.35 and some stop hunting up and down. Again at this level BoJ would intervene if the 80 level will be broken. Gold all time highs at 1.3060; US futures stable again in to the 1180. GOLD/Oil ratio stable, little rising; VIX stable to low levels.
COT JPY up at 44.7k (+2.2k)
COT USD up to 8.4k (+3k)
COT EUR down to 35.1k (-3k)
COT AUD down 49.5k (- 6k)
TYN up to 2.51% (+0.5%)
JGB at 0.93% (-0.1%)
Bunds at 2.41%. (-0.1%)

German/Greece up to 9.1% (+1%)
VIX down to 18.2 (-3)
Gold/Oil down to 15.4 (-1.4)

"Market dynamics”
FED announcement, dollar pumps and good far east data are basically set a risk on environment. This is also good for US stocks. But with late of week USD recovery and good data releases (ISM orders, NFP) I will go into next week with a USD cautiously optimistic view. Recent QE2 may lead to further rise in commodities prices and then lead to higher inflation, especially in AUD. Further rate hikes are expected and the some AUD upside.
Anyway there is a risk that G-20 meeting will give US a free pass to weaken further USD. I will monitor US official statements. EUR peripheral concerns are likely to come back in this year end. ECB confirmed exit strategy and FED dollar pumps in the market are strengthening the EURUSD, but I see difficult to maintain gains above 1.45. Anyway after QE2 even with good US data, I don’t expect that USD will be strong at the height of the PIIGS story (EURUSD 1.200). I think that BoJ will wait G-20 to apply a coordinate intervention.
Th basic medium term view is a risk on through the end of the year, that can be stopped maybe for:
1. A unknown developing crisis (any of sort)
2. China will dip prices to reenter commodities at lower levels
3. The PIIGS story back if EURUSD will rise at uncomfortable levels of 1.5

Median grid
EURUSD GRID 1.340 - 1.42, up bias
USDJPY GRID 80.00-84.00, neutral bias
AUDJPY GRID 73.00-81.00, long bias

Prices
US up at 1222, (+40, Q4)
GOLD up to at 139 (+45$, Q4),
Crude 87.8 (+7$)
EURUSD 1.4031 (-0. 10, Q4)
USDJPY 81.26 (+0.9, Q2)
AUDJPY 82.5 (+2, Q4+)

3.  Plan
I will reverse the EURUSD -1 in +1 at these levels. I see risk on mode to leave roomfor the EUSUSD to go to 1.45. Still long USDJPY expecting BoJ intervention, but add stops.

EURUSD
I will exit the short if support 1.3950 holds and enter a long B&B on the yob level (1.3982) I will hedge on a couple of level down (-100 pips). I will take profit at 50-100 pips. I will hedge on a couple of level down (-100 pips), before FCOM if reached.
Comment:< >

USDJPY
No more positions to add
Comment:< >

AUDJPY
Comment:< >

EURNOK
Comment:< >

4.  Trades
4.1 open trades, their type & their value:
1 Open 05-set-10 USDJPY L 84.2600 83.2600 Q1 0.2 B&B 81.3 -297.0000 -21.9000
2 Open 07-ott-10 USDJPY L 82.3600 83.2600 Q1 0.2 B&B 81.3 -107.0000-7.9000
5 Open 31-ott-10 EURUS S 1.3968 1.3818 Q4 0.2 Contra 1.4031 -63.0000 -6.3000 -4.49
4.2 Leverage

Aggregate position size expressed as a gearing ratio (Ex = 3:1)

Total positions per currency:
USDJPY +2
EURUSD 0
AUDJPY 0
Position
USDJPY -27.0, -13
EURUSD 0
AUDJPY 0

4.3  Effect of planned trades

Account summary:
Saxo live account
Starting capital: 1000
Line in the sand level:  7500

1.  Account balance (Settled trades) and growth as a percentage.  (9979=-0.15%)
2.  Account equity (Including open positions) .  (9938= -0.6%)
3.  Account equity if planned trades go wrong: 9939
4.  Pip distance to line in the sand level.  6200, with gear (0.2) 12000