Daily Briefing 100429

1.  Review.

I said “With the current positive correlation with USDJPY this would lead USDJPY to gain. l I would expect risk on remaining for the next week. JPY top breakout are to be monitored closely and soon. I would expect EURUSD rally to last short and be under pressure again.”. I was again wrong and late; the Greece crisis mounted again causing risk off.
Trades

I am stuck with the hedged USDJPY (edged at the extreme low at 91.7); I added a USPJPY at 92 level dip. A cashed another EURNOK with profit closed. I added a short before the Greece dip and I close with a profit. Gold is still hedged with loss.

2.  Analysis.

"Fundamental analysis"
US data is good and this confirm that recovery is gaining momentum. EZ is under pressure with Greece debt, even if aid package looks on the way. Portugal and Spain bonds were downgraded too. No Fed changes were in this week. Fundamentals are expected confirming the recovery, including PPI from China.

"Technical analysis"

EURUSD bottomed but did not broke the current grid and returned inside. Still the status of aid package is not 100% and it would be risky to add short.

"Market dynamics".
I would expect risk on remaining for the next week. JPY top breakout are to be monitored closely and soon. I would expect EURUSD rally to last short and be under pressure again.

Median grid

EURUSD GRID 1.3100 - 1.3700, short bias
USDJPY GRID 88.00-92.00, long bias
AUDJPY GRID 78.00-86.00, long bias, maybe a grid adjustment
Basically still a risk-on bias

Prices

US up at 1202, (Q4)
GOLD at 11707 (Q4)
Crude 85.0
EURUSD 1.328 (M)
USDJPY 93.96 (Q2)

3.  Plan

Add new trades: I will do B&B trades with long term trades.

EURUSD
I will enter short on the yob level (1.33), I will hedge on a couple of level up (-100 pips). I will wait then for a dip to enter a short B&B again at 1.3508 and a Toe In trade, same level.
Comment:< >

USDJPY
I will enter a long B&B on the next yob level (93.2, even if looks like a median price; maybe is a good buy at 92.67 level) as pullback 1:1, I will hedge on a couple of level down (-100 pips). I can open a new toe in long same level. I will take profit at 50-100 pips
Comment:< >

AUDJPY
Too much on the high levels. Take profit of one position if breaks to top. I will add a long on the previous yob level (85.32) as pullback 1:1, I will stop out on a level down (-100 pips).
Comment:< >

EURNOK
Take profit around 7.4 and add another short if pullback at 7.91.
Comment:< >

Daily Briefing 100426

1.  Review.

Last week I said that basically we would see a correction on risk positions and lower risk ahead. I was basically wrong . The correction lasted only few hours with Friday Goldman Sack news. Risk off lasted very few and we are back at the same range top as last week.
Trades

I am stuck with the hedged USDJPY (edged at the extreme low at 91.7); I should worked out better the covering, looking that we were at the grid low and maybe close the hedge before getting to the long position level. I added a USPJPY at 93 level (the mean, probably not a good deal). It worked better the AUDJPY edge ( a profit). EURNOK finally rallied short to the 7.8 with profit closed. I was lucky with a long opened at grid top (1160) very in depth, that was back to 1160 level after Greece help request.

2.  Analysis.

"Fundamental analysis"
ZEW German index end business climate were better than expected. Despite good EZ data Greece request for founding weighted to the EUR. US earning were ahead then expectation too, as PPI, existing and new home sales and the important core durable goods orders. All this suggest that recovery is gaining momentum.

"Technical analysis"

EURUSD filled the gap, reached the range bottom and went back to 1.33. COT data shows JPY short high (-50k) since 2007, EUR shorts increased again (-75k), US still long at 24k, decreasing. UDB sees EURUSD at 1.3 in three month forecast. Lot of double tops on AUDJPY around 87.4 value. USDJPY rallied to 94. JPY crosses are around top of ranges

"Market dynamics".
No Fed changes are expected this week. Fundamentals are expected confirming the recovery, including PPI from China. China is expected to have a credit tightening, US notes are expected lowering and yields increasing. With the current positive correlation with USDJPY this would lead USDJPY to gain. l I would expect risk on remaining for the next week. JPY top breakout are to be monitored closely and soon. I would expect EURUSD rally to last short and be under pressure again.

Median grid

EURUSD GRID 1.3100 - 1.3700, short bias
USDJPY GRID 88.00-92.00, long bias
AUDJPY GRID 78.00-86.00, long bias, maybe a grid adjustment
Basically still a risk-on bias

Prices

US up at 1212, (Q4)
GOLD at 1157 (Q4)
Crude 85.0
EURUSD 1.338 (M)
USDJPY 93.96 (Q2)

3.  Plan

Add new trades: I will do B&B trades with long term trades.

EURUSD
I will enter long on the yob level (1.34), I will hedge on a couple of level up (-100 pips). I will wait then for a dip to enter a short B&B again at 1.3508 and a Toe In trade, same level.
Comment:< >

USDJPY
I will enter a long B&B on the next yob level (93.2, even if looks like a median price; maybe is a good buy at 92.67 level) as pullback 1:1, I will hedge on a couple of level down (-100 pips). I can open a new toe in long same level. I will take profit at 50-100 pips
Comment:< >

AUDJPY
Too much on the high levels. Take profit of one position if breaks to top. I will add a long on the previous yob level (85.32) as pullback 1:1, I will stop out on a level down (-100 pips).
Comment:< >

EURNOK
Take profit at 7.89 and add another short if pullback at 7.91.
Comment:< >

4.  Trades

4.1 open trades, their type & their value:
13-apr-10 USDJPY L 93.2400 Q3 1:1 B&B 94.0000 76.0000 70.8624
19-apr-10 USDJPY S 91.6100 Q1 1:1 Hedge 94.0000 -239.0000 -218.9479
19-apr-10 USDJPY L 93.4800 Q1 1:1 B&B 94.0000 52.0000 48.6096
1 Open 15/04/2010 AUDJPY L 86.3700 Q4 1:1 B&B 87.1500 78.0000 67.3686
3 Open 20-apr-10 AUDJPY L 86.5100 Q4 1:1 B&B 87.1500 64.0000 55.3664

4.2 Leverage

aggregate position size expressed as a gearing ratio (Ex = 4:1)

Total positions per currency
USDJPY +2,-1
EURUSD 0
AUDJPY +2
Position
USDJPY 118 (218)
EURUSD 0 (0)
AUDJPY 117 (0)

4.3  Effect of planned trades

Account summary:
ActivTrades live account
Starting date: 1/4/2010
Starting capital: 1366
Line in the sand level:  750

1.  Account balance (Settled trades) and growth as a percentage.  (1379= 1%)
2.  Account equity (Including open positions) .  (1381= 1%)
3.  Account equity if planned trades go wrong
4.  Pip distance to line in the sand level.  6300, with gear 1263

Daily Briefing 100422

1.  Review.

I said :” Risk on positions looks like to be high. Brian Dolan bias is for lower risk ahead. Anyway Goldman Sacks risk off wave looks like to be already gone and risk takers are still there. Expected US data are still for positive news”. Basically all is back as before the Friday Goldman Sack news. Risk off lasted very few and we are back at the same uncertain.
Trades

I hedged previous week “risk on positions” and closed an AUDJPY edge

2.  Analysis.

"Fundamental analysis"
Last week were strong (but expected) Chinese growth (11.9% GDP). USD sales and manufacture indexes were good. TTC Bond buy were increasing. Phil Fed Manufacturing index was good, as housing, but UoM was much bad than expected. US500 did no rallied for good earnings. Employment continue to restrain recovery, limiting the upside. Greece is preparing the EU-IMF bailout.

EURUSD felt also for Greece deficit, at 13.6 against the 12.8 expected. ZEW was positive but Greece uncertain is stressing investors.
Basically risk on environment is back again, even if much of the risk looks like already priced.

EMVA report was not bullish for Q2/10

"Technical analysis"

EURUSD filled the gap. COT data shows JPY short high (-55k) since 2007, EUR shorts decreased a little (-55k), US still long at 27k, after a top. UDB sees EURUSD at 1.3 in three month forecast

Lot of double tops on AUDJPY around 86 value

USDJPY is back to the 93 mean value

"Market dynamics".
Despite positive ZEW EURUSD is under pressure. Important US data about employment. Expected data are good, so I expect a EURUSD bounce on good data even because prices discounted a lot EUR weakness.

Good China palladium imports looks bullish to economy. Credit risk in Japan would limit JPY strength. I will add positions against JPY and short again EURUSD.

Median grid

EURUSD GRID 1.3100 - 1.3700, short bias
USDJPY GRID 88.00-92.00, long bias
AUDJPY GRID 78.00-86.00, long bias, maybe a grid adjustment
Basically still a risk-on bias

Prices

US up at 1193, (Q2)
GOLD at 1130 (Q4+)
Crude 82.7
EURUSD 1.330 (M)
USDJPY 93.08 (Q2)

3.  Plan

Add new trades: I will do B&B trades with long term trades.

EURUSD

I will enter long on the yob level (1.34) if retrace from 1.5 levels, I will hedge on a couple of level up (-100 pips). I will wait then for a dip to enter a short B&B again at 1.3508 and a Toe In trade, same level.
Comment:< >

USDJPY
I will enter a long B&B on the next yob level (92.16 or 92.67) as pullback 1:1, I will hedge on a couple of level down (-100 pips). I can open a new toe in long same level. I will take profit at 50-100 pips

Comment:< >

AUDJPY

Too much on the high levels. I will do a Toe In for the next grid, if any. I will enter long on the previous yob level (85.32) as pullback 1:1, I will stop out on a level down (-100 pips).

Comment:< >

EURNOK

Take profit and add another short if pullback at 8.02.

Comment:< >

Daily Briefing 100412

1.  Review.

Still not that sure about market status last days, discordant signals: a risk off day Wednesday, but a risk on day Thursday and Friday. I did not get the dip on Friday, but prices for EURUSD and USDJPY dipped even more.
Trades
Close a profit on EURNOK and Gold.

2.  Analysis.

"Fundamental analysis"
Risk was on during last days. USD lost gains. Fundamentals were not so good: “depurated” jobs were still decreasing (http://dailyreckoning.com/a-space-oddity/), jobless claims were more than expected. Greece is getting help from EU and IMF but markets need to see concrete signs of budget reforms and cuts. Not very likely from Greece government. EUR is expected to fall (UBS to 1.290).

JPY strength is due more to the Chinese revaluation expectations. Strong correlation (95%) with T-10 yields shows that JPY is likely to rise, after yields tested 4% level.

Jim Rogers notes: likes CAD, AUD and especially Real. RBA is raised rates in may, and this would suggest a appetite of AUD. Gold is rising despite US is up.
"Technical analysis"
EUR is expected to fall (UBS) if 1.490 resistance does not hold . Today is testing this resistance, after a double bottom. USJPY has retraced from 94 level, pausing around 93 medium support. If breaks, I see 92 level. COT data shows JPY short high (-43k) since 2007, EUR shorts decreased a little (-67k), US still long at 30k.

"Market dynamics"
No significant data from EZ. Despite recent gains, I expect EUR to be under pressure again. US data are expected increasing and confirm the current growth. Q1 earnings this week should confirm if there are earning for revenues and not for cost cuts.
Japanese minister likes to have a weaker JPY and suggested BoJ to start a new easing campaign. I expect USDJPY rising, but attention should be paid to Chinese revaluation expectations

AUD should also benefit from this, but maybe more against the USD. AUDJPY should be favorite by carry trades.

Median grid

EURUSD GRID 1.3100 - 1.3700, short bias
USDJPY GRID 88.00-92.00, long bias
AUDJPY GRID 78.00-86.00, long bias, maybe a grid adjustment
Basically still a risk-on bias

Prices

US up at 1192, (Q2)
GOLD at 1161 (Q4+)
Crude 89.9
EURUSD 1.3498 (M)
USDJPY 93.17 (Q2)

3.  Plan

Add new trades: I will do B&B trades with long term trades.

EURUSD

I will enter long on the yob level (1.348) if retrace from 1.5 levels, I will hedge on a couple of level up (-100 pips). I will wait then for a dip to enter a short B&B again at 1.3508 and a Toe In trade, same level.
Comment:< >

USDJPY
I will enter a long B&B on the next yob level (92.6) as pullback 1:1, I will hedge on a couple of level down (-100 pips). I can open a new toe in long same level. I will take profit at 50-100 pips

Comment:< >

AUDJPY

Too much on the high levels. I will do a Toe In for the next grid, if any. I will enter long on the previous yob level (85.32) as pullback 1:1, I will stop out on a level down (-100 pips).

Comment:< >

EURNOK

Take profit and add another short if pullback at 8.02.

Comment:< >

4.  Trades

4.1 open trades, their type & their value:

4.2 Leverage

aggregate position size expressed as a gearing ratio (Ex = 4:1)

Total positions per currency

USDJPY 0
EURUSD 0
AUDJPY 0
Position
USDJPY 0 (0)
EURUSD 0 (0)
AUDJPY 0 (0)

4.3  Effect of planned trades

Account summary:

ActivTrades live account

Starting date: 1/4/2010

Starting capital: 1366

Line in the sand level:  750

1.  Account balance (Settled trades) and growth as a percentage.  (1366= 0%)
2.  Account equity (Including open positions) .  (1360= -1%)
3.  Account equity if planned trades go wrong
4.  Pip distance to line in the sand level.  6100

Daily Briefing 100409

1.  Review.

Not too much time to follow and I closed out almost all position. Not that sure about current status. Discordant signals: a risk off day yesterday, but a risk on day today
Trades

Closed USDJPY and got some “sell the fact” profit; but I read JPY strength is due more to the Chinese revaluation expectations.

2.  Analysis.

"Fundamental analysis"
Greece debt is still on; Germany likes a weaker EUR. No very good data came out for EZ. EUR is expected to fall (UBS to 1.290) US data were a little worst than expected. EZ banks are overexposed to East Europe debt. Jim Rogers notes: likes CAD, AUD and especially Real. RBA is raised rates in may, and this would suggest a appetite of AUD. Gold is rising despite US is up.
"Technical analysis"
EUR is expected to fall (UBS) if 1.490 resistance does not hold . Today the 1.328 support hold

"Market dynamics"
No data expected for tomorrow.

Median grid

EURUSD GRID 1.3100 - 1.3700, short bias, grid adjustment
USDJPY GRID 88.00-92.00, long bias, grid adjustment

AUDJPY GRID 78.00-86.00, long bias, maybe a , grid adjustment

Basically still a risk-on bias

Prices

US up at 1182, (Q2)
GOLD at 1150 (Q4)
Crude 85.41
EURUSD 1.3348 (Q2)
USDJPY 93.35, (Q3)

3.  Plan

Add new trade I will do B&B trades with long term trades.

EURUSD

I will enter long on the next yob level (1.3408) as pullback 1:1, I will hedge on a couple of level up (-100 pips). I will wait then for a dip to enter a short B&B again at 1.3508 and a Toe In trade, same level.
Comment:< >

USDJPY
I will enter a long B&B on the next yob level (92.6) as pullback 1:1, I will hedge on a couple of level down (-100 pips). I can open a new toe in long around at 93. I will take profit at 50-100 pips

Comment:< >

AUDJPY

I will do B&B. I will enter long on the next yob level (82.32) as pullback 1:1, I will stop out on a level down (-100 pips). I wait if prices come down to the previous 82 value area

Comment:< >

EURNOK

Add another short if pullback at 8.02.

Comment:< >

4.  Trades

4.1 open trades, their type & their value:

4.2 Leverage

aggregate position size expressed as a gearing ratio (Ex = 4:1)

Total positions per currency

USDJPY 0
EURUSD 0
AUDJPY 0
Position
USDJPY 0 (0)
EURUSD 0 (0)
AUDJPY 0 (0)

4.3  Effect of planned trades

Account summary:

ActivTrades live account

Starting date: 1/4/2010

Starting capital: 1366

Line in the sand level:  750

1.  Account balance (Settled trades) and growth as a percentage.  (1366= 0%)
2.  Account equity (Including open positions) .  (1360= -1%)
3.  Account equity if planned trades go wrong
4.  Pip distance to line in the sand level.  6100

Daily Briefing 100405

1.  Review.

After having close out all positions, I hoped to enter on some pullback but they did were there. Risk on was still playing giving AUD and USD strength. The bar after the employment claims set a clear risk on bias.
Trades

I just entered a not very smart short on USDJPY hoping to get some “sell the fact” profit, but after a small spike USD went to 94 level.

2.  Analysis.

"Fundamental analysis"
Risk environment is improving, leading stock, commodities and JPY crosses higher. EUR and GBP will lag, while AUD and CAD are leading. USD is gaining against JPY. Credit swaps (insurance against defaults) are at the highs for PGS, suggesting that the Greece issue is still there.
The March employment report confirms that the upward trend in jobs and generally in the economy is still up. Several leading indicators confirm this view. US economy is viewed as the best performer in the developed world (against the EZ, UK and Japan).
RBA is expecting rising rates in may, and this would suggest a appetite of AUD.

"Technical analysis"

EURUSD is trading in the grid middle, having changed it (see below). New high at 1.36 looks like a strong resistance, giving the amount of previous trading at that level.
USDJPY is running quickly to the 95 level, breaking the 93 high. UBS suggested a profit taking. AUDJPY broke the 86 high grid resistance.
JPY COT short are -30k level, EUR -85k, all time low level and USD long still remains high (35). I think it is worth to notice that COT EUR reports a all time high in the EUR large speculator position shorts at -85k (http://www.timingcharts.com/index.php). Price and shorts are going the same way: I think we should wait for a divergence to see the price reverse, and it not there for now.

"Market dynamics"

Recent carry trades increasing and more risk on set some crosses at highs near some psychological level. Next week fundamentals looks good for US and AUD. (ISM and employment). I would expect some profit taking before trying to break those levels, basically 95 for USDJPY and again 1.35 for EURUSD

Median grid

EURUSD GRID 1.3100 - 1.3700, short bias, grid adjustment
USDJPY GRID 88.00-92.00, long bias, grid adjustment

AUDJPY GRID 78.00-86.00, long bias, maybe a , grid adjustment

Basically still a risk-on bias

Prices

US up at 1179, (Q2)
GOLD at 1123 (Q3), almost same value as beginning of year
Crude 85.1
EURUSD 1.3498 (M)
USDJPY 94.53, (Q3)

3.  Plan

Add new trade I will do B&B trades with long term trades.

EURUSD

I will enter long on the next yob level (1.3508) as pullback 1:1, I will hedge on a couple of level up (-100 pips). I will wait then for a dip to enter a short B&B again at 1.3508 and a Toe In trade, same level.
Comment:< >

USDJPY
I will enter a long B&B on the next yob level (94.1) as pullback 1:1, I will hedge on a couple of level down (-100 pips). I can open a new toe in long around at 93. I will take profit at 50-100 pips

Comment:< >

AUDJPY

I will do B&B. I will enter long on the next yob level (82.32) as pullback 1:1, I will stop out on a level down (-100 pips). I wait if prices come down to the previous 82 value area

Comment:< >

EURNOK

Add another short if pullback at 8.095.

Comment:< >

4.  Trades

4.1 open trades, their type & their value:

1 Open 02-apr-10 USDJPY S 94.0200 Q3 1:1 B&B 94.6000 -58.0000 -54.5316

4.2 Leverage

aggregate position size expressed as a gearing ratio (Ex = 4:1)

Total positions per currency

USDJPY -1
EURUSD 0
AUDJPY 0
Position
USDJPY -1 (-62)
EURUSD 0 (0)
AUDJPY 0 (0)

4.3  Effect of planned trades

Account summary:

ActivTrades live account

Starting date: 1/4/2010

Starting capital: 1366

Line in the sand level:  750

1.  Account balance (Settled trades) and growth as a percentage.  (1366= 0%)
2.  Account equity (Including open positions) .  (1360= -1%)
3.  Account equity if planned trades go wrong
4.  Pip distance to line in the sand level.  6100

Daily Briefing 100329

1.  Review.

EUR got some gain after EUM meeting, having anticipated lows before the meeting. USDJPY paused the sell off around the expected 92 level.

Trades

I exit last USDJPY long, a long time entry that was out of the money for a month.

I exit the AUDJPY with some profit.

I have only a couple if EURNOK, that suffered from the non hike of the rates.

2.  Analysis.

"Fundamental analysis"

Real USD driver looks like to be a selloff of US treasuries that are increasing yields and bringing USD higher.

JPYUSD and TNX are strongly correlated since 2010. Lack of participation from the China to USD treasury auction could send yield to 4.0 %. From this correlation we could expect USDJPY rising to 95-96 level. UBS suggest anyway some caution in using bond spread differential as driver of fx market.

A unified response to the Greece crisis between EU members helped EUR to recover from recent lows. Next Greece bond sales will be vital to its fiscal program: a poor sales could force Greece to ask help (especially from Germany) and could trigger a contagious to the next Portugal PIGS .

Except new home sales, fundamentals were good last week, especially unemployment claims. Forecasted data shows positive signs for the hold of the recovery.

RBA is expecting rising rates in may, and this would suggest a appetite of AUD.

"Technical analysis"

EURUSD reentered the grid at the lows. A double bottom would suggest that the 1.33 level is holding. UBS forecast 1.30 level in 3 months. UBS see EURUSD at 1.30 in three months.

USDJPY run quickly to the 92.5 level, hitting a double top. UBS is expecting a USJPY at 95 in three months, but quite stable to 90 in a year forecast.

"Market dynamics"

Recent move in USJPY would suggest that investor are expecting increase in the rate differentials. We are looking to see carry trades increasing and more risk on. Increasing yields and not still clear recovery certain (especially from banks) will lead to increasing volatility in the next period. As relative value, UBS set US as the strongest currency for now.

Median grid

EURUSD GRID 1.3500 - 1.4100, short bias, maybe a grid adjustment

USDJPY GRID 88.00-92.00, long bias

AUDJPY GRID 78.00-86.00, long bias

Basically still a risk-on bias

Prices

US up at 1163, (Q2)
GOLD at 1106 (Q3), almost same value as beginning of year
Crude 80.1
EURUSD 1.3409 (Q4-)
USDJPY 92.53, (Q4+)

3.  Plan

Add new trade I will do B&B trades with long term trades.

EURUSD

I will enter long on the next yob level (1.3508) as pullback 1:1, I will hedge on a couple of level up (-100 pips). I will wait then for a dip to enter a short B&B again at 1.3508 and a Toe In trade, same level.

Comment:< >

USDJPY

I will enter a long B&B on the next yob level (91.75) as pullback 1:1, I will hedge on a couple of level down (-100 pips). I can open a new toe in long at 91.15 opened. I will take profit at 50-100 pips

Comment:< >

AUDJPY

I will do B&B. I will enter long on the next yob level (82.32) as pullback 1:1, I will stop out on a level down (-100 pips). I wait if prices come down to the previous 82 value area

Comment:< >

EURNOK

Add another short if pullback at 8.095.

Comment:<>

4.  Trades

4.1 open trades, their type & their value:

4.2 Leverage

aggregate position size expressed as a gearing ratio (Ex = 4:1)

Total positions per currency

USDJPY 0
EURUSD 0
AUDJPY 0

Position

USDJPY 0 (0)
EURUSD 0 (0)
AUDJPY 0 (0)

4.3  Effect of planned trades

Account summary:

ActivTrades live account

Starting date: 1/1/2010
Starting capital: 1233
Line in the sand level:  750
1.  Account balance (Settled trades) and growth as a percentage.  (1366= 9%)
2.  Account equity (Including open positions) .  (1346= 8%)
3.  Account equity if planned trades go wrong
4.  Pip distance to line in the sand level.  6000