Daily Briefing 100422

1.  Review.

I said :” Risk on positions looks like to be high. Brian Dolan bias is for lower risk ahead. Anyway Goldman Sacks risk off wave looks like to be already gone and risk takers are still there. Expected US data are still for positive news”. Basically all is back as before the Friday Goldman Sack news. Risk off lasted very few and we are back at the same uncertain.
Trades

I hedged previous week “risk on positions” and closed an AUDJPY edge

2.  Analysis.

"Fundamental analysis"
Last week were strong (but expected) Chinese growth (11.9% GDP). USD sales and manufacture indexes were good. TTC Bond buy were increasing. Phil Fed Manufacturing index was good, as housing, but UoM was much bad than expected. US500 did no rallied for good earnings. Employment continue to restrain recovery, limiting the upside. Greece is preparing the EU-IMF bailout.

EURUSD felt also for Greece deficit, at 13.6 against the 12.8 expected. ZEW was positive but Greece uncertain is stressing investors.
Basically risk on environment is back again, even if much of the risk looks like already priced.

EMVA report was not bullish for Q2/10

"Technical analysis"

EURUSD filled the gap. COT data shows JPY short high (-55k) since 2007, EUR shorts decreased a little (-55k), US still long at 27k, after a top. UDB sees EURUSD at 1.3 in three month forecast

Lot of double tops on AUDJPY around 86 value

USDJPY is back to the 93 mean value

"Market dynamics".
Despite positive ZEW EURUSD is under pressure. Important US data about employment. Expected data are good, so I expect a EURUSD bounce on good data even because prices discounted a lot EUR weakness.

Good China palladium imports looks bullish to economy. Credit risk in Japan would limit JPY strength. I will add positions against JPY and short again EURUSD.

Median grid

EURUSD GRID 1.3100 - 1.3700, short bias
USDJPY GRID 88.00-92.00, long bias
AUDJPY GRID 78.00-86.00, long bias, maybe a grid adjustment
Basically still a risk-on bias

Prices

US up at 1193, (Q2)
GOLD at 1130 (Q4+)
Crude 82.7
EURUSD 1.330 (M)
USDJPY 93.08 (Q2)

3.  Plan

Add new trades: I will do B&B trades with long term trades.

EURUSD

I will enter long on the yob level (1.34) if retrace from 1.5 levels, I will hedge on a couple of level up (-100 pips). I will wait then for a dip to enter a short B&B again at 1.3508 and a Toe In trade, same level.
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USDJPY
I will enter a long B&B on the next yob level (92.16 or 92.67) as pullback 1:1, I will hedge on a couple of level down (-100 pips). I can open a new toe in long same level. I will take profit at 50-100 pips

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AUDJPY

Too much on the high levels. I will do a Toe In for the next grid, if any. I will enter long on the previous yob level (85.32) as pullback 1:1, I will stop out on a level down (-100 pips).

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EURNOK

Take profit and add another short if pullback at 8.02.

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