Daily Briefing 100409

1.  Review.

Not too much time to follow and I closed out almost all position. Not that sure about current status. Discordant signals: a risk off day yesterday, but a risk on day today
Trades

Closed USDJPY and got some “sell the fact” profit; but I read JPY strength is due more to the Chinese revaluation expectations.

2.  Analysis.

"Fundamental analysis"
Greece debt is still on; Germany likes a weaker EUR. No very good data came out for EZ. EUR is expected to fall (UBS to 1.290) US data were a little worst than expected. EZ banks are overexposed to East Europe debt. Jim Rogers notes: likes CAD, AUD and especially Real. RBA is raised rates in may, and this would suggest a appetite of AUD. Gold is rising despite US is up.
"Technical analysis"
EUR is expected to fall (UBS) if 1.490 resistance does not hold . Today the 1.328 support hold

"Market dynamics"
No data expected for tomorrow.

Median grid

EURUSD GRID 1.3100 - 1.3700, short bias, grid adjustment
USDJPY GRID 88.00-92.00, long bias, grid adjustment

AUDJPY GRID 78.00-86.00, long bias, maybe a , grid adjustment

Basically still a risk-on bias

Prices

US up at 1182, (Q2)
GOLD at 1150 (Q4)
Crude 85.41
EURUSD 1.3348 (Q2)
USDJPY 93.35, (Q3)

3.  Plan

Add new trade I will do B&B trades with long term trades.

EURUSD

I will enter long on the next yob level (1.3408) as pullback 1:1, I will hedge on a couple of level up (-100 pips). I will wait then for a dip to enter a short B&B again at 1.3508 and a Toe In trade, same level.
Comment:< >

USDJPY
I will enter a long B&B on the next yob level (92.6) as pullback 1:1, I will hedge on a couple of level down (-100 pips). I can open a new toe in long around at 93. I will take profit at 50-100 pips

Comment:< >

AUDJPY

I will do B&B. I will enter long on the next yob level (82.32) as pullback 1:1, I will stop out on a level down (-100 pips). I wait if prices come down to the previous 82 value area

Comment:< >

EURNOK

Add another short if pullback at 8.02.

Comment:< >

4.  Trades

4.1 open trades, their type & their value:

4.2 Leverage

aggregate position size expressed as a gearing ratio (Ex = 4:1)

Total positions per currency

USDJPY 0
EURUSD 0
AUDJPY 0
Position
USDJPY 0 (0)
EURUSD 0 (0)
AUDJPY 0 (0)

4.3  Effect of planned trades

Account summary:

ActivTrades live account

Starting date: 1/4/2010

Starting capital: 1366

Line in the sand level:  750

1.  Account balance (Settled trades) and growth as a percentage.  (1366= 0%)
2.  Account equity (Including open positions) .  (1360= -1%)
3.  Account equity if planned trades go wrong
4.  Pip distance to line in the sand level.  6100