Daily Briefing 100412

1.  Review.

Still not that sure about market status last days, discordant signals: a risk off day Wednesday, but a risk on day Thursday and Friday. I did not get the dip on Friday, but prices for EURUSD and USDJPY dipped even more.
Trades
Close a profit on EURNOK and Gold.

2.  Analysis.

"Fundamental analysis"
Risk was on during last days. USD lost gains. Fundamentals were not so good: “depurated” jobs were still decreasing (http://dailyreckoning.com/a-space-oddity/), jobless claims were more than expected. Greece is getting help from EU and IMF but markets need to see concrete signs of budget reforms and cuts. Not very likely from Greece government. EUR is expected to fall (UBS to 1.290).

JPY strength is due more to the Chinese revaluation expectations. Strong correlation (95%) with T-10 yields shows that JPY is likely to rise, after yields tested 4% level.

Jim Rogers notes: likes CAD, AUD and especially Real. RBA is raised rates in may, and this would suggest a appetite of AUD. Gold is rising despite US is up.
"Technical analysis"
EUR is expected to fall (UBS) if 1.490 resistance does not hold . Today is testing this resistance, after a double bottom. USJPY has retraced from 94 level, pausing around 93 medium support. If breaks, I see 92 level. COT data shows JPY short high (-43k) since 2007, EUR shorts decreased a little (-67k), US still long at 30k.

"Market dynamics"
No significant data from EZ. Despite recent gains, I expect EUR to be under pressure again. US data are expected increasing and confirm the current growth. Q1 earnings this week should confirm if there are earning for revenues and not for cost cuts.
Japanese minister likes to have a weaker JPY and suggested BoJ to start a new easing campaign. I expect USDJPY rising, but attention should be paid to Chinese revaluation expectations

AUD should also benefit from this, but maybe more against the USD. AUDJPY should be favorite by carry trades.

Median grid

EURUSD GRID 1.3100 - 1.3700, short bias
USDJPY GRID 88.00-92.00, long bias
AUDJPY GRID 78.00-86.00, long bias, maybe a grid adjustment
Basically still a risk-on bias

Prices

US up at 1192, (Q2)
GOLD at 1161 (Q4+)
Crude 89.9
EURUSD 1.3498 (M)
USDJPY 93.17 (Q2)

3.  Plan

Add new trades: I will do B&B trades with long term trades.

EURUSD

I will enter long on the yob level (1.348) if retrace from 1.5 levels, I will hedge on a couple of level up (-100 pips). I will wait then for a dip to enter a short B&B again at 1.3508 and a Toe In trade, same level.
Comment:< >

USDJPY
I will enter a long B&B on the next yob level (92.6) as pullback 1:1, I will hedge on a couple of level down (-100 pips). I can open a new toe in long same level. I will take profit at 50-100 pips

Comment:< >

AUDJPY

Too much on the high levels. I will do a Toe In for the next grid, if any. I will enter long on the previous yob level (85.32) as pullback 1:1, I will stop out on a level down (-100 pips).

Comment:< >

EURNOK

Take profit and add another short if pullback at 8.02.

Comment:< >

4.  Trades

4.1 open trades, their type & their value:

4.2 Leverage

aggregate position size expressed as a gearing ratio (Ex = 4:1)

Total positions per currency

USDJPY 0
EURUSD 0
AUDJPY 0
Position
USDJPY 0 (0)
EURUSD 0 (0)
AUDJPY 0 (0)

4.3  Effect of planned trades

Account summary:

ActivTrades live account

Starting date: 1/4/2010

Starting capital: 1366

Line in the sand level:  750

1.  Account balance (Settled trades) and growth as a percentage.  (1366= 0%)
2.  Account equity (Including open positions) .  (1360= -1%)
3.  Account equity if planned trades go wrong
4.  Pip distance to line in the sand level.  6100