Daily Briefing 100429

1.  Review.

I said “With the current positive correlation with USDJPY this would lead USDJPY to gain. l I would expect risk on remaining for the next week. JPY top breakout are to be monitored closely and soon. I would expect EURUSD rally to last short and be under pressure again.”. I was again wrong and late; the Greece crisis mounted again causing risk off.
Trades

I am stuck with the hedged USDJPY (edged at the extreme low at 91.7); I added a USPJPY at 92 level dip. A cashed another EURNOK with profit closed. I added a short before the Greece dip and I close with a profit. Gold is still hedged with loss.

2.  Analysis.

"Fundamental analysis"
US data is good and this confirm that recovery is gaining momentum. EZ is under pressure with Greece debt, even if aid package looks on the way. Portugal and Spain bonds were downgraded too. No Fed changes were in this week. Fundamentals are expected confirming the recovery, including PPI from China.

"Technical analysis"

EURUSD bottomed but did not broke the current grid and returned inside. Still the status of aid package is not 100% and it would be risky to add short.

"Market dynamics".
I would expect risk on remaining for the next week. JPY top breakout are to be monitored closely and soon. I would expect EURUSD rally to last short and be under pressure again.

Median grid

EURUSD GRID 1.3100 - 1.3700, short bias
USDJPY GRID 88.00-92.00, long bias
AUDJPY GRID 78.00-86.00, long bias, maybe a grid adjustment
Basically still a risk-on bias

Prices

US up at 1202, (Q4)
GOLD at 11707 (Q4)
Crude 85.0
EURUSD 1.328 (M)
USDJPY 93.96 (Q2)

3.  Plan

Add new trades: I will do B&B trades with long term trades.

EURUSD
I will enter short on the yob level (1.33), I will hedge on a couple of level up (-100 pips). I will wait then for a dip to enter a short B&B again at 1.3508 and a Toe In trade, same level.
Comment:< >

USDJPY
I will enter a long B&B on the next yob level (93.2, even if looks like a median price; maybe is a good buy at 92.67 level) as pullback 1:1, I will hedge on a couple of level down (-100 pips). I can open a new toe in long same level. I will take profit at 50-100 pips
Comment:< >

AUDJPY
Too much on the high levels. Take profit of one position if breaks to top. I will add a long on the previous yob level (85.32) as pullback 1:1, I will stop out on a level down (-100 pips).
Comment:< >

EURNOK
Take profit around 7.4 and add another short if pullback at 7.91.
Comment:< >